Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
Green | Nov 13, 2022
NREL report: Using photovoltaic modules with longer lifetimes is a better option than recycling
A new report from the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) says PV module lifetime extensions should be prioritized over closed-loop recycling to reduce demand for new materials.
Green | Nov 13, 2022
Global building emissions reached record levels in 2021
Carbon-dioxide emissions from building construction and operations hit an all-time high in 2021, according to the most recent data compiled by the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction.
University Buildings | Nov 13, 2022
University of Washington opens mass timber business school building
Founders Hall at the University of Washington Foster School of Business, the first mass timber building at Seattle campus of Univ. of Washington, was recently completed. The 84,800-sf building creates a new hub for community, entrepreneurship, and innovation, according the project’s design architect LMN Architects.
Architects | Nov 10, 2022
What’s new at 173 architecture firms for 2022
More than 295 U.S. architecture and architecture-engineering (AE) firms participated in BD+C's 2022 Giants 400 survey. As part of the Giants survey process, participating firms are asked to describe their most impactful firm innovations and noteworthy company moves in the past 12 months. Here is a collection of the most compelling business and project innovations and business moves from the 2022 Architecture Giants.
Giants 400 | Nov 9, 2022
Top 30 Data Center Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
HDR, Corgan, Sheehan Nagle Hartray Architects, and Gensler top the ranking of the nation's largest data center architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Nov 8, 2022
Top 110 Sports Facility Architecture and AE Firms for 2022
Populous, HOK, Gensler, and Perkins and Will top the ranking of the nation's largest sports facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Industry Research | Nov 8, 2022
U.S. metros take the lead in decarbonizing their built environments
A new JLL report evaluates the goals and actions of 18 cities.
Hotel Facilities | Nov 8, 2022
6 hotel design trends for 2022-2023
Personalization of the hotel guest experience shapes new construction and renovation, say architects and construction experts in this sector.
Green | Nov 8, 2022
USGBC and IWBI will develop dual certification pathways for LEED and WELL
The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) and the International WELL Building Institute (IWBI) will expand their strategic partnership to develop dual certification pathways for LEED and WELL.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Nov 8, 2022
Renovation work outpaces new construction for first time in two decades
Renovations of older buildings in U.S. cities recently hit a record high as reflected in architecture firm billings, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
