Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| Feb 23, 2011
The library is dead, long live the library
The Society for College and University Planning asked its members to voice their thoughts on the possible death of academic libraries. And many did. The good news? It's not all bad news. A summary of their members' comments appears on the SCUP blog.
| Feb 23, 2011
Data center trends: green design, technology upgrades
While green data centers will continue to be a trend within the industry, technology is also driving infrastructure upgrades that have never been seen before, according to the 2011 Data Center Technical Market Report from Environmental Systems Design. The report also includes an overview of the national data center market, construction costs, blackouts and disaster prevention, and site selection.
| Feb 23, 2011
“School of Tomorrow” student design competition winners selected
The American Institute of Architecture Students (AIAS) and Kawneer Company, Inc. announced the winners of the “Schools of Tomorrow” student design competition. The Kawneer-sponsored competition, now in its fifth year, challenged students to learn about building materials, specifically architectural aluminum building products and systems in the design of a modern and creative school for students ranging from kindergarten to sixth grade. Ball State University’s Susan Butts was awarded first place and $2,500 for “Propel Elementary School.”
| Feb 23, 2011
Barbie's newest career: Architect
Mattel is introducing Architect Barbie this fall, following a campaign that started in 2002 to give the iconic blond a design job. The doll comes in a signature pink outfit, but if she's truly hoping to pass an an architect, shouldn't she be wearing all black?
| Feb 23, 2011
Green building on the chopping block in House spending measure
Bryan Howard, Legislative Director of the U.S. Green Building Council, blogs about proposed GOP budget cuts that could impact green building in the commercial sector.
| Feb 23, 2011
Architecture Billings hold steady after two months of improving conditions
After showing positive momentum during the fourth quarter of 2010, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) slipped almost four points in January. The January ABI score was 50.0, which is down from a reading of 53.9 the previous month, but still reflects stable demand for design services. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings.
| Feb 22, 2011
LEED Volume Program celebrates its 500th certified Pilot Project
More than 500 building projects have certified through the LEED Volume Program since the pilot launched in 2006, according to the U.S. Green Building Council. The LEED Volume Program streamlines the certification process for high-volume property owners and managers, from commercial real estate firms, national retailers and hospitality providers, to local, state and federal governments.
| Feb 22, 2011
HDR Architecture names four healthcare directors
Four senior professionals in HDR Architecture’s healthcare program have been named Healthcare directors.
