Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
Affordable Housing | Jul 12, 2023
Navigating homelessness with modular building solutions
San Francisco-based architect Chuck Bloszies, FAIA, SE, LEED AP, discusses his firm's designs for Navigation Centers, temporary housing for the homeless in northern California.
Sponsored | Fire and Life Safety | Jul 12, 2023
Fire safety considerations for cantilevered buildings [AIA course]
Bold cantilevered designs are prevalent today, as developers and architects strive to maximize space, views, and natural light in buildings. Cantilevered structures, however, present a host of challenges for building teams, according to José R. Rivera, PE, Associate Principal and Director of Plumbing and Fire Protection with Lilker.
Building Owners | Jul 12, 2023
Building movement: When is it a problem?
As buildings age, their structural conditions can deteriorate, causing damage and safety concerns. In order to mitigate this, it’s important to engage in the regular inspection and condition assessment of buildings for diagnosis.
Mass Timber | Jul 11, 2023
5 solutions to acoustic issues in mass timber buildings
For all its advantages, mass timber also has a less-heralded quality: its acoustic challenges. Exposed wood ceilings and floors have led to issues with excessive noise. Mass timber experts offer practical solutions to the top five acoustic issues in mass timber buildings.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 11, 2023
Converting downtown office into multifamily residential: Let’s stop and think about this
Is the office-to-residential conversion really what’s best for our downtowns from a cultural, urban, economic perspective? Or is this silver bullet really a poison pill?
Adaptive Reuse | Jul 10, 2023
California updates building code for adaptive reuse of office, retail structures for housing
The California Building Standards Commission recently voted to make it easier to convert commercial properties to residential use. The commission adopted provisions of the International Existing Building Code (IEBC) that allow developers more flexibility for adaptive reuse of retail and office structures.
Laboratories | Jul 10, 2023
U.S. Department of Agriculture opens nation’s first biosafety level 4 containment facility for animal disease research
Replacing a seven-decade-old animal disease center, the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility includes the nation’s first facility with biosafety containment capable of housing large livestock.
Adaptive Reuse | Jul 6, 2023
The responsibility of adapting historic university buildings
Shepley Bulfinch's David Whitehill, AIA, believes the adaptive reuse of historic university buildings is not a matter of sentimentality but of practicality, progress, and preservation.
Market Data | Jul 5, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending decreased in May, its first drop in nearly a year
National nonresidential construction spending decreased 0.2% in May, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.06 trillion.
Architects | Jul 5, 2023
Niles Bolton Associates promotes Jeffrey Smith, AIA, to President and C. Cannon Reynolds, AIA, to Managing Director
Niles Bolton Associates (NBA), a leading architecture, planning and design firm, announces leadership changes as a part of its ongoing commitment to future growth. Current Executive Vice President, Jeffrey Smith, AIA, has been named President and C. Cannon Reynolds, AIA, has been named Managing Director effective June 30, 2023.