Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| Apr 26, 2011
Video: Are China's ghost cities a bubble waiting to burst?
It's estimated that 10 new cities are being built in China every year, but many are virtually deserted. Retail space remains empty and hundreds of apartments are vacant, but the Chinese government is more concerned with maintaining economic growth—and building cities is one way of achieving that goal.
| Apr 25, 2011
Earn $300 million by NOT hiring Frank Gehry
An Iowa philanthropist and architecture aficionado—who wishes to remain anonymous—is offering a $300 million “reward” to any city anywhere in the world that’s brave enough to hire someone other than Frank Gehry to design its new art museum.
| Apr 20, 2011
Marketing firm Funtion: to host “Construct. Build. Evolve.”
Function:, an integrated marketing agency that specializes in reaching the architecture, building and design community, is hosting an interactive art event, “Construct. Build. Evolve.” in Atlanta’s Piedmont Park on Thursday April 21, 2011 at 11:00AM EDT. During the event attendees will be asked to answer the question, “how would you build the future?” to rouse dialogue and discover fresh ideas for the future of the built environment.
| Apr 20, 2011
Architecture Billings Index: new projects inquiry index up significantly from February
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the March ABI score was 50.5, a negligible decrease from a reading of 50.6 the previous month. This score reflects a modest increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 58.7, up significantly from a mark of 56.4 in February.
| Apr 19, 2011
What are the 15 most-watched construction and engineering stocks?
According to Motley Fool, a multimedia financial services company, the most-watched construction and engineering stock is Fluor (NYSE: FLR), which ranks #1 on BD+C’s Giants 300 engineering list with $1.994 billion in revenue in 2009. Check out the 14 other most-watched A/E stocks.
| Apr 19, 2011
AIA announces top 10 green Projects for 2011
The American Institute of Architects Committee on the Environment announced its Top 10 Green Projects for 2011. Among the winners: Cherokee Studios in Los Angeles, the Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., and the Vancouver Convention Centre West in Vancouver, British Columbia.
| Apr 18, 2011
Greening and Upgrading Today’s Vertical Transport Systems
Earn 1.0 AIA/CES HSW/SD learning units by studying this article and passing the online exam.
| Apr 14, 2011
U.S. embassies on a mission to green the world's buildings
The U.S. is putting greater emphasis on greening its worldwide portfolio of embassies. The U.S. State Department-affiliated League of Green Embassies already has 70 U.S. embassies undergoing efforts to reduce their environmental impact, and the organization plans to increase that number to more than 100 by the end of the year.
| Apr 14, 2011
How AEC Professionals Choose Windows and Doors
Window and door systems need to perform. Respondents to our annual window and door survey overwhelmingly reported that performance, weather resistance, durability, and quality were key reasons a particular window or door was specified.
