Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| Sep 11, 2012
McQuade appointed CEO of Tishman Construction
McQuade will focus on driving the growth of the company into new markets and expanding market share in its current areas of operation.
| Sep 11, 2012
Ecosystem Management & Associates joins HDR
EM&A staff will do business as part of HDR Engineering and HDR Environmental, Operations and Construction.
| Sep 10, 2012
Specialty door types—plenty of functional variety
In the MasterFormat section 08 30 00, Specialty Doors and Frames, a number of door types are listed for special functions, access locations, sliding and folding hardware, and even pressure-resistant types.
| Sep 7, 2012
7 Do's and Don'ts for PV roof rack installation
As PVs grow in popularity, nearly half of all installations require roof rack systems. Our expert tells how to do the job right and protect your client’s roof.
| Sep 7, 2012
Net-zero energy pioneers on the el-hi frontier
Getting to net-zero is not easy, but the promise of eliminating energy bills and using state-of-the-art technology as a learning lab can make a compelling case to reach for net-zero.
| Sep 7, 2012
Healthcare architects get a preview of tomorrow’s medical landscape
The topic on everyone’s mind was how the Affordable Care Act would impact healthcare design and construction––and whether the law would even make it past the coming election cycle.
| Sep 7, 2012
Goettsch Partners designs new tower in Abu Dhabi
Al Hilal Bank’s 24-story flagship development provides contemporary office space.
| Sep 7, 2012
Suffolk awarded One Channel Center project in Boston
Firm to manage $125 million, 525,000-sf office building project.
| Sep 7, 2012
Duffy joins Thornton Tomasetti
At Hardesty & Hanover, Duffy partnered with Thornton Tomasetti on a number of projects.
| Sep 7, 2012
Lucile Packard Children’s Hospital breaks ground on expansion
Sustainability and nature at the heart of the new addition at the Stanford University Medical Center designed by Perkins+Will.