Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| Dec 4, 2012
Greenhorne & O’Mara signs letter of intent to join Stantec
Acquisitions of C3TS and Architecture 2000 also completed.
| Dec 4, 2012
Sto Corp. announces new distributor in the Carolinas
Company will now have coverage in several parts of North Carolina.
| Dec 4, 2012
Wirtz Beverage Illinois’ corporate headquarters completed
WBI Center, a new state-of-the-art facility, is designed by Ware Malcomb.
| Dec 4, 2012
Wagner joins Ghafari as Manager of Structural Engineering
Wagner comes to Ghafari from Walter P Moore, where he served as a principal, chaired the construction administration task force and led the design of numerous projects ranging in size from $10 million to $70 million.
| Dec 4, 2012
City of Gainesville to break ground on $33 million bus fleet maintenance and ops facility
The 140,000-sf facility will include dispatch, administrative and maintenance facilities.
| Nov 28, 2012
Project team to showcase design for first mixed-use retail center of its kind in Mexico City
Project reaching construction milestone, offering national model for urban development in Mexico.
| Nov 28, 2012
Cummins announces ratings classification for data center power systems
The Data Center Continuous ratings span the range of Cummins Power Generation’s high horsepower diesel generator sets, from 1 MW up to 2.5 MW, and will apply to both 50 Hz and 60 Hz configurations.
| Nov 28, 2012
Francis Cauffman appoints Stainbrook Director of Higher Education
Stainbrook has 16 years of experience as a strategic planner and urban designer working on complex projects on- and off-campus.
| Nov 27, 2012
SFIA releases technical guide for cold-formed steel framing products
The 114-page book covers both structural and non-structural applications, including section properties of SFIA member product profiles, and complete load and span tables for most applications.
| Nov 21, 2012
Architecture Billings Index positive for third straight month
All regions reporting positive business conditions