Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| Apr 3, 2013
5 award-winning modular buildings
The Modular Building Institute recently revealed the winners of its annual Awards of Distinction contest. There were 42 winners in all across six categories. Here are five projects that caught our eye.
| Apr 2, 2013
6 lobby design tips
If you do hotels, schools, student unions, office buildings, performing arts centers, transportation facilities, or any structure with a lobby, here are six principles from healthcare lobby design that make for happier users—and more satisfied owners.
| Apr 2, 2013
4 hospital lobbies provide a healthy perspective
A carefully considered entry zone can put patients at ease while sending a powerful branding message for your healthcare client. Our experts show how to do it through four project case studies.
| Apr 2, 2013
Green building consultant explores the truth about green building performance in new book
A new book from leading sustainability, green building author and expert Jerry Yudelson challenges assumptions about the value of sustainable design and environmentally-friendly buildings.
| Mar 29, 2013
Stanford researchers develop nanophotonic panel that reflects sun's heat out of the atmosphere
Researchers at Stanford University have developed a nanophotonic material that not only reflects sunlight, but actually beams the thermal energy out of the earth's atmosphere.
| Mar 29, 2013
Detroit's historic Whitney Building to be renovated for hotel, apartments
Detroit's David Whitney Building, a 19-story landmark erected in 1915, will be renovated for an Aloft hotel and apartments.
| Mar 29, 2013
PBS broadcast to highlight '10 Buildings That Changed America'
WTTW Chicago, in partnership with the Society of Architectural Historians, has produced "10 Builidngs That Changed America," a TV show set to air May 12 on PBS.
| Mar 29, 2013
Shenzhen projects halted as Chinese officials find substandard concrete
Construction on multiple projects in Guangdong Province—including the 660-m Ping'an Finance Center—has been halted after inspectors in Shenzhen, China, have found at least 15 local plants producing concrete with unprocessed sea sand, which undermines building stabity.
| Mar 29, 2013
Pearce Brinkley Cease + Lee joins Clark Nexsen
Clark Nexsen, PC, headquartered in Norfolk, Va., has announced that the architecture firm Pearce Brinkley Cease + Lee (PBC+L) of Raleigh and Asheville, NC, has officially joined Clark Nexsen.
| Mar 29, 2013
Cuningham Group acquires NTD's healthcare practice, expands into key markets
The international design firm Cuningham Group Architecture, Inc. has announced that NTD Healthcare has the joined the company in a strategic expansion. A practice of NTD Architecture, NTD Healthcare joins Cuningham Group with three principals: Wayne Hunter, AIA, NCARB, ACHA and Phillip T. Soule, III, AIA, ACHA in San Diego, along with Maha Abou-Haidar, AIA in Phoenix.