Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
Sponsored | | Sep 13, 2014
Right Way Plumbing finishes first at Max Planck Florida Institute
The Max Planck Florida Institute consists of a three-story, 100,000-sf scientific research facility with 30,000 feet of copper joined with Viega ProPress fittings.
| Sep 12, 2014
Total immersion: Has virtual reality's time finally come?
The emergence of low-cost VR technology means that anyone with a few hundred bucks and a decent workstation can get in the game. But, as our experts reveal, pulling off VR is not so simple.
| Sep 12, 2014
Will on-site parking remain king in the development world?
In spite of the trend away from multi-car residences, not much has changed with regard to parking spot allocations within apartment buildings and other multi-unit residential developments, writes GS&P's Doug Sharp.
| Sep 11, 2014
5 competing designs unveiled for Presidio Parklands in San Francisco
To turn the underdeveloped area by Chrissy Field into new public space, San Francisco's Presidio Trust unveiled the five designs by five teams they invited earlier this year.
| Sep 11, 2014
Cintas invites public to vote for 'America's best restroom'
For the 13th consecutive year, Cintas Corporation is back with its popular America’s Best Restroom Contest. A team of survey editors once again scanned the country for the most creative and clean public restrooms and produced a crop of nominees sure to please.
| Sep 10, 2014
Ranked: Top transit facility sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Leo A Daly, URS, and Skanska head BD+C's rankings of the largest transit facility sector design and construction firms, based on the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 10, 2014
Must See: Shape-shifting architecture that responds to heat
Students in Barcelona have created a composite material using shape memory polymers that can deform and return to their original state when activated by cues like heat, humidity, and light.
| Sep 10, 2014
Lessons for the shore: Bolstering resilience of the built environment
Nearly 32 million people, or 28% of the East Coast's population, live in areas lying within a mile of a shore line. The good news is that municipalities are starting to take action, writes Sasaki Associates.
| Sep 9, 2014
Using Facebook to transform workplace design
As part of our ongoing studies of how building design influences human behavior in today’s social media-driven world, HOK’s workplace strategists had an idea: Leverage the power of social media to collect data about how people feel about their workplaces and the type of spaces they need to succeed.
| Sep 9, 2014
Ranked: Top religious sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Brasfield & Gorrie, Gensler, and Jacobs top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest religious sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.