Gilbane has released its Spring 2014 edition of the periodic report "Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction" (download the full report).
Among the findings from the Executive Summary:
CONSTRUCTION GROWTH IS LOOKING UP
- Construction Spending for 2014 will finish the year 6.6% higher than 2013. Nonresidential buildings will contribute substantially to the growth.
- The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) in 2013 dropped below 50 in April, November and December briefly, indicating declining workload. Overall the ABI portrays a good leading indicator for future new construction work.
- Selling price data for 2013 shows contractors adding to their margins.
- Construction jobs grew by 156,000 in 2013, less than anticipated. However, hours worked also grew by 3%, the equivalent of another 150,000+ jobs.
SOME ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE STILL NEGATIVE
- We are experiencing a slight slowdown in construction spending that could last through May, influenced by a slight dip in nonresidential buildings and a brief flattening in residential, but more so by a steep decline in nonbuilding infrastructure spending. The monthly rate of spending for nonbuilding infrastructure may decline by 10% through Q3 2014.
- The construction workforce and hours worked is still 22% below the 2006 peak. At peak average growth rates, it will take a minimum of five more years to return to previous peak levels.
- Construction volume is 23% below peak inflation adjusted spending, which was almost constant from 2000 through 2006. At average peak growth rates of 8% per year, and factoring out inflation to get real volume growth, it will take eight more years to regain previous peak volume levels.
- As workload expands in the next few years, a shortage of available skilled workers may have a detrimental effect on cost, productivity and the ability to readily increase construction volume.
THE EFFECTS OF GROWTH
- Construction spending during the first five months of 2013 declined from the rate of spending in Q4 2012. Growth has been inconsistent, even in the booming residential sector, which has seen recent declines. We see more consistent growth in 2014 for buildings.
- As spending continues to increase, contractors gain more ability to pass along costs and increase margins. The growth in contractor margins slowed since last year. However, expected increases in volume should reverse that in 2014.
- ENR’s Third Quarter 2013 Cost Report shows general purpose and material cost indices increased on average about 2% to 2.5% year over year. However, selling price indices increased 4% on average. The difference between these indices is increased margins.
IMPACT OF RECENT EVENTS
- There are several reasons why spending is not rapidly increasing: public sector construction remains depressed as sequestration continues; the government is spending less on schools and infrastructure; lenders are just beginning to loosen lending criteria; consumers are still cautious about increasing debt load, including the consumers’ share of public debt and we may be constrained by a skilled labor shortage.
- Supported by overall positive growth trends for year 2014, Gilbane expects margins and overall escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
- Growth in nonresidential buildings and residential construction in 2014 will lead to more significant labor demand, resulting in labor shortages and productivity losses. Margins regained a positive footing in 2012 and extended those gains in 2013. Expect margins to grow stronger in 2014. When activity picks up in all sectors, escalation will begin to advance rapidly.
Click here to download the complete report and a list of data sources.
ABOUT THIS REPORT
Gilbane Inc. is a full service construction and real estate development company, composed of Gilbane Building Company and Gilbane Development Company. The company (www.gilbaneco.com) is one of the nation’s largest construction and program managers providing a full slate of facilities related services for clients in education, healthcare, life sciences, mission critical, corporate, sports and recreation, criminal justice, public and aviation markets. Gilbane has more than 50 offices worldwide, with its corporate office located in Providence, Rhode Island. The information in this report is not specific to any one region.
Related Stories
| Dec 2, 2014
Nashville planning retail district made from 21 shipping containers
OneC1TY, a healthcare- and technology-focused community under construction on 18.7 acres near Nashville, Tenn., will include a mini retail district made from 21 shipping containers, the first time in this market containers have been repurposed for such use.
| Dec 2, 2014
Main attractions: New list tallies up the Top 10 museums completed this year
The list includes both additions to existing structures and entirely new buildings, from Frank Gehry's Foundation Louis Vuitton in Paris to Shigeru Ban's Aspen (Colo.) Art Museum.
| Dec 2, 2014
Nonresidential construction spending rebounds in October
This month's increase in nonresidential construction spending is far more consistent with the anecdotal information floating around the industry, says ABC's Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
| Dec 2, 2014
Hoffmann Architects announces promotions
The architecture and engineering firm specializing in the rehabilitation of building exteriors announces the promotion of members of its Connecticut staff.
| Dec 2, 2014
SPARK designs urban farming housing for Singapore’s elderly population
The proposal blends affordable retirement housing with urban farming by integrating vertical aquaponic farming and rooftop soil planting into multi-unit housing for seniors.
| Dec 2, 2014
Bjarke Ingels unveils cave-like plan for public square in Battersea Power Station
A Malaysian development consortium is guiding the project, which is meant to mimic the caves of Gunung Mulu National Park in Sarawak, East Malaysia.
| Dec 1, 2014
9 most controversial buildings ever: ArchDaily report
Inexplicable designs. Questionable functionality. Absurd budgeting. Just plain inappropriate. These are some of the characteristics that distinguish projects that ArchDaily has identified as most controversial in the annals of architecture and construction.
| Dec 1, 2014
Skanska, Foster + Partners team up on development of first commercial 3D concrete printing robot
Skanska will participate in an 18-month program with a consortium of partners to develop a robot capable of printing complex structural components with concrete.
| Dec 1, 2014
How public-private partnerships can help with public building projects
Minimizing lifecycle costs and transferring risk to the private sector are among the benefits to applying the P3 project delivery model on public building projects, according to experts from Skanska USA.
High-rise Construction | Dec 1, 2014
ThyssenKrupp develops world’s first rope-free elevator system
ThyssenKrupp's latest offering, named MULTI, will allow several cabins in the same shaft to move vertically and horizontally.