A bruising presidential election and a tightening labor market are prompting reservations about future spending for nonresidential building, even as the construction industry’s performance has staved off most gloom-and-doom scenarios.
Total spending for nonresidential building was up nearly 11%, to $103.3 billion, in the first quarter. The Census Bureau estimated that the value of nonresidential building put in place rose 3.1% in April compared to April 2015, to an annualized $461.8 billion, spurred by robust building of hotels, offices, and entertainment/amusement centers.
TOP CONTRACTOR GIANTS
2015 GC Revenue ($)
1. Turner Construction Co. $10,566,643,175
2. Whiting-Turner Contracting Co. $5,530,003,229
3. Fluor Corp. $5,048,920,000
4. Skanska USA $4,887,571,264
5. Gilbane Building Co. $4,406,057,000
6. PCL Construction Enterprises $4,344,294,460
7. Balfour Beatty US $3,955,770,283
8. Structure Tone $3,865,600,000
9. AECOM $3,772,057,000
10. DPR Construction $3,085,975,000
TOP CM/PM GIANTS
2015 CM/PM Revenue ($)
1. Hill International $503,000,000
2. Jacobs $460,670,000
3. JLL $328,233,760
4. Hunter Roberts Construction Group $259,724,915
5. AECOM $256,933,000
6. Burns & McDonnell $255,390,861
7. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff $173,063,000
8. Turner Construction Co. $161,788,824
9. Sachse Construction $109,836,555
10. Cumming $96,538,000
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS SPONSORED BY:
“The construction sector is likely to be the economic tailwind” in the U.S., predicts Kermit Baker, PhD, Chief Economist with the American Institute of Architects.
Baker and chief economists Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America and Alex Carrick of CMD Construction Data expect nonresidential construction spending to increase 9–10% this year and 4–8% in 2017. More than one-third of AGC’s membership expects there will be more work to bid on this year than last year, particularly in the retail, warehouse, lodging, and office sectors.
The trio of economists raised a number of red flags about factors that could slow construction spending. “Market fundamentals remain positive, but are fading in most sectors,” said Baker.
Carrick and Simonson are less sanguine about spending for education-related projects, mainly because growth figures for 4- to 17-year-olds and 18- to 26-year-olds are either flat lining or receding.
Simonson noted that recent legislation passed by Congress extends tax credits and allows for more federal dollars to flow into construction. But the federal government is reducing its overall physical footprint, so it’s more likely to renovate existing buildings than build new.
Multifamily housing, which has been one of the construction industry’s high-powered turbines—it’s up 30% since 2009, according to Baker—is expected to taper off to a still-strong but normalized range of 410,000–440,000 units per year.
Simonson also pointed out that the U.S. population has been growing at less than 1% annually, and that several states have lost population. Immigration, which has pushed population growth over the past few decades, has lost traction. The factors could lead to less mobility and less demand for new construction.
HELLO!!! ARE THERE ANY CARPENTERS OUT THERE?
Another area of concern for contractors is finding the skilled labor they need to complete projects they bid for.
The country’s unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in May, and was down in 269 of 387 metros, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Carrick noted that the labor participation rate (the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population) fell to 62.5% in Q1/2016, from 67% in 2001.
Citing a recent survey of 1,300 AGC-member companies, Simonson said that 79% are having difficulty finding hourly craft professionals, and 73% struggle to hire carpenters. More than half (56%) said they have raised their base pay for hourly workers; 29% provide incentives and bonuses.
None of the economists anticipates a recession rearing its head any time soon. “I think there’s too much negative talk about the economy,” said Carrick. What does worry him are the sluggish energy sector and economic slowdowns outside the U.S., specifically China.
As for the presidential race, AGC’s Simonson lamented that it might not make much difference who wins. “I expect continued gridlock,” he says. “Uncertainty will cause companies to hold back on major investments.”
More on the 2016 Construction Giants: BD+C's John Caulfield examines how Turner uses to design-build, P3, Lean practices, and engineering services.
RETURN TO THE GIANTS 300 LANDING PAGE
Related Stories
Transportation & Parking Facilities | Oct 20, 2022
How to comply with NYC Local Law 126 parking garage inspection rules
Effective January 1, 2022, New York City requires garage owners to retain a specially designated professional engineer to conduct an assessment and file a report at least once every six years. Hoffmann Architects + Engineers offers tips and best practices on how to comply with NYC Local Law 126 parking garage inspection rules.
Mixed-Use | Oct 20, 2022
ROI on resilient multifamily construction can be as high as 72%
A new study that measured the economic value of using FORTIFIED Multifamily, a voluntary beyond-code construction and re-roofing method developed by the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), found the return can be as high as 72%.
40 Under 40 | Oct 19, 2022
Meet the 40 Under 40 class of 2022
Each year, the editors of Building Design+Construction honor 40 architects engineers, contractors, and real estate developers as BD+C 40 Under 40 awards winners. These AEC professionals are recognized for their career achievements, passion for the AEC profession, involvement with AEC industry organizations, and service to their communities.
BAS and Security | Oct 19, 2022
The biggest cybersecurity threats in commercial real estate, and how to mitigate them
Coleman Wolf, Senior Security Systems Consultant with global engineering firm ESD, outlines the top-three cybersecurity threats to commercial and institutional building owners and property managers, and offers advice on how to deter and defend against hackers.
Designers | Oct 19, 2022
Architecture Billings Index moderates but remains healthy
For the twentieth consecutive month architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in September, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Building Team | Oct 18, 2022
Brasfield & Gorrie chairman’s home vandalized by anti-development activists
Activists vandalized the home and vehicles of Miller Gorrie, chairman of Birmingham-based Brasfield & Gorrie, in protest of a planned $90 million, 85-acre police, fire and public safety training center in Atlanta.
Mixed-Use | Oct 18, 2022
Mixed-use San Diego tower inspired by coastal experience and luxury travel
The new 525 Olive mixed use San Diego tower was inspired by the coastal experience and luxury travel.
University Buildings | Oct 18, 2022
A carbon-neutral-ready university campus opens in Hong Kong
In early September, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) officially opened its new, KPF-designed campus in Nansha, Guangzhou (GZ).
Market Data | Oct 17, 2022
Calling all AEC professionals! BD+C editors need your expertise for our 2023 market forecast survey
The BD+C editorial team needs your help with an important research project. We are conducting research to understand the current state of the U.S. design and construction industry.
Codes and Standards | Oct 17, 2022
Ambitious state EV adoption goals put pressure on multifamily owners to provide chargers
California’s recently announced ban on the sale of new gas-powered vehicles starting in 2035—and New York’s recent decision to follow suit—are putting pressure on multifamily property owners to install charging stations for tenants.