A bruising presidential election and a tightening labor market are prompting reservations about future spending for nonresidential building, even as the construction industry’s performance has staved off most gloom-and-doom scenarios.
Total spending for nonresidential building was up nearly 11%, to $103.3 billion, in the first quarter. The Census Bureau estimated that the value of nonresidential building put in place rose 3.1% in April compared to April 2015, to an annualized $461.8 billion, spurred by robust building of hotels, offices, and entertainment/amusement centers.
TOP CONTRACTOR GIANTS
2015 GC Revenue ($)
1. Turner Construction Co. $10,566,643,175
2. Whiting-Turner Contracting Co. $5,530,003,229
3. Fluor Corp. $5,048,920,000
4. Skanska USA $4,887,571,264
5. Gilbane Building Co. $4,406,057,000
6. PCL Construction Enterprises $4,344,294,460
7. Balfour Beatty US $3,955,770,283
8. Structure Tone $3,865,600,000
9. AECOM $3,772,057,000
10. DPR Construction $3,085,975,000
TOP CM/PM GIANTS
2015 CM/PM Revenue ($)
1. Hill International $503,000,000
2. Jacobs $460,670,000
3. JLL $328,233,760
4. Hunter Roberts Construction Group $259,724,915
5. AECOM $256,933,000
6. Burns & McDonnell $255,390,861
7. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff $173,063,000
8. Turner Construction Co. $161,788,824
9. Sachse Construction $109,836,555
10. Cumming $96,538,000
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS SPONSORED BY:
“The construction sector is likely to be the economic tailwind” in the U.S., predicts Kermit Baker, PhD, Chief Economist with the American Institute of Architects.
Baker and chief economists Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America and Alex Carrick of CMD Construction Data expect nonresidential construction spending to increase 9–10% this year and 4–8% in 2017. More than one-third of AGC’s membership expects there will be more work to bid on this year than last year, particularly in the retail, warehouse, lodging, and office sectors.
The trio of economists raised a number of red flags about factors that could slow construction spending. “Market fundamentals remain positive, but are fading in most sectors,” said Baker.
Carrick and Simonson are less sanguine about spending for education-related projects, mainly because growth figures for 4- to 17-year-olds and 18- to 26-year-olds are either flat lining or receding.
Simonson noted that recent legislation passed by Congress extends tax credits and allows for more federal dollars to flow into construction. But the federal government is reducing its overall physical footprint, so it’s more likely to renovate existing buildings than build new.
Multifamily housing, which has been one of the construction industry’s high-powered turbines—it’s up 30% since 2009, according to Baker—is expected to taper off to a still-strong but normalized range of 410,000–440,000 units per year.
Simonson also pointed out that the U.S. population has been growing at less than 1% annually, and that several states have lost population. Immigration, which has pushed population growth over the past few decades, has lost traction. The factors could lead to less mobility and less demand for new construction.
HELLO!!! ARE THERE ANY CARPENTERS OUT THERE?
Another area of concern for contractors is finding the skilled labor they need to complete projects they bid for.
The country’s unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in May, and was down in 269 of 387 metros, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Carrick noted that the labor participation rate (the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population) fell to 62.5% in Q1/2016, from 67% in 2001.
Citing a recent survey of 1,300 AGC-member companies, Simonson said that 79% are having difficulty finding hourly craft professionals, and 73% struggle to hire carpenters. More than half (56%) said they have raised their base pay for hourly workers; 29% provide incentives and bonuses.
None of the economists anticipates a recession rearing its head any time soon. “I think there’s too much negative talk about the economy,” said Carrick. What does worry him are the sluggish energy sector and economic slowdowns outside the U.S., specifically China.
As for the presidential race, AGC’s Simonson lamented that it might not make much difference who wins. “I expect continued gridlock,” he says. “Uncertainty will cause companies to hold back on major investments.”
More on the 2016 Construction Giants: BD+C's John Caulfield examines how Turner uses to design-build, P3, Lean practices, and engineering services.
RETURN TO THE GIANTS 300 LANDING PAGE
Related Stories
| Jul 30, 2013
Top Healthcare Sector Construction Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Turner, McCarthy, Clark Group top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest healthcare contractors and construction management firms in the U.S.
| Jul 26, 2013
Boldt opens Southern California office
Location is Boldt’s third in the state, will expand firm’s established presence on the west coast.
| Jul 26, 2013
How biomimicry inspired the design of the San Francisco Museum at the Mint
When the city was founded in the 19th century, the San Francisco Bay’s edge and marshland area were just a few hundred feet from where the historic Old Mint building sits today. HOK's design team suggested a design idea that incorporates lessons from the local biome while creating new ways to collect and store water.
| Jul 25, 2013
3 office design strategies for creating happy, productive workers
Office spaces that promote focus, balance, and choice are the ones that will improve employee experience, enhance performance, and drive innovation, according to Gensler's 2013 U.S. Workplace Survey.
| Jul 25, 2013
Rep. Burke, contractors welcome new Builders Association Executive Director
Illinois State Representative Kelly Burke and many of Chicagoland's leading contractors were on hand this week to welcome new Executive Director Dan McLaughlin to the Builders Association.
| Jul 25, 2013
How can I help you?: The evolution of call center design
Call centers typically bring to mind an image of crowded rows of stressed-out employees who are usually receiving calls from people with a problem or placing calls to people that aren’t thrilled to hear from them. But the nature of the business is changing; telemarketing isn’t what it used to be.
| Jul 25, 2013
First look: Studio Gang's residential/dining commons for University of Chicago
The University of Chicago will build a $148 million residence hall and dining commons designed by Studio Gang Architects, tentatively slated for completion in 2016.
| Jul 25, 2013
ACEEE presents the 2013 Champions of Energy Efficiency in Industry Awards
The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) presented four Champion of Energy Efficiency Awards last night at its Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry.
| Jul 23, 2013
Paul Bertram to speak at ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency
Paul Bertram, FCSI, CDT, LEED AP and director of environment and sustainability for Kingspan Insulated Panels N.A., will present a white paper during the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) 2013 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry.
| Jul 22, 2013
School officials and parents are asking one question: Can design prevent another Sandy Hook? [2013 Giants 300 Report]
The second deadliest mass shooting by a single person in U.S. history galvanizes school officials, parents, public officials, and police departments, as they scrambled to figure out how to prevent a similar incident in their communities.
