A bruising presidential election and a tightening labor market are prompting reservations about future spending for nonresidential building, even as the construction industry’s performance has staved off most gloom-and-doom scenarios.
Total spending for nonresidential building was up nearly 11%, to $103.3 billion, in the first quarter. The Census Bureau estimated that the value of nonresidential building put in place rose 3.1% in April compared to April 2015, to an annualized $461.8 billion, spurred by robust building of hotels, offices, and entertainment/amusement centers.
TOP CONTRACTOR GIANTS
2015 GC Revenue ($)
1. Turner Construction Co. $10,566,643,175
2. Whiting-Turner Contracting Co. $5,530,003,229
3. Fluor Corp. $5,048,920,000
4. Skanska USA $4,887,571,264
5. Gilbane Building Co. $4,406,057,000
6. PCL Construction Enterprises $4,344,294,460
7. Balfour Beatty US $3,955,770,283
8. Structure Tone $3,865,600,000
9. AECOM $3,772,057,000
10. DPR Construction $3,085,975,000
TOP CM/PM GIANTS
2015 CM/PM Revenue ($)
1. Hill International $503,000,000
2. Jacobs $460,670,000
3. JLL $328,233,760
4. Hunter Roberts Construction Group $259,724,915
5. AECOM $256,933,000
6. Burns & McDonnell $255,390,861
7. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff $173,063,000
8. Turner Construction Co. $161,788,824
9. Sachse Construction $109,836,555
10. Cumming $96,538,000
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS SPONSORED BY:
“The construction sector is likely to be the economic tailwind” in the U.S., predicts Kermit Baker, PhD, Chief Economist with the American Institute of Architects.
Baker and chief economists Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America and Alex Carrick of CMD Construction Data expect nonresidential construction spending to increase 9–10% this year and 4–8% in 2017. More than one-third of AGC’s membership expects there will be more work to bid on this year than last year, particularly in the retail, warehouse, lodging, and office sectors.
The trio of economists raised a number of red flags about factors that could slow construction spending. “Market fundamentals remain positive, but are fading in most sectors,” said Baker.
Carrick and Simonson are less sanguine about spending for education-related projects, mainly because growth figures for 4- to 17-year-olds and 18- to 26-year-olds are either flat lining or receding.
Simonson noted that recent legislation passed by Congress extends tax credits and allows for more federal dollars to flow into construction. But the federal government is reducing its overall physical footprint, so it’s more likely to renovate existing buildings than build new.
Multifamily housing, which has been one of the construction industry’s high-powered turbines—it’s up 30% since 2009, according to Baker—is expected to taper off to a still-strong but normalized range of 410,000–440,000 units per year.
Simonson also pointed out that the U.S. population has been growing at less than 1% annually, and that several states have lost population. Immigration, which has pushed population growth over the past few decades, has lost traction. The factors could lead to less mobility and less demand for new construction.
HELLO!!! ARE THERE ANY CARPENTERS OUT THERE?
Another area of concern for contractors is finding the skilled labor they need to complete projects they bid for.
The country’s unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in May, and was down in 269 of 387 metros, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Carrick noted that the labor participation rate (the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population) fell to 62.5% in Q1/2016, from 67% in 2001.
Citing a recent survey of 1,300 AGC-member companies, Simonson said that 79% are having difficulty finding hourly craft professionals, and 73% struggle to hire carpenters. More than half (56%) said they have raised their base pay for hourly workers; 29% provide incentives and bonuses.
None of the economists anticipates a recession rearing its head any time soon. “I think there’s too much negative talk about the economy,” said Carrick. What does worry him are the sluggish energy sector and economic slowdowns outside the U.S., specifically China.
As for the presidential race, AGC’s Simonson lamented that it might not make much difference who wins. “I expect continued gridlock,” he says. “Uncertainty will cause companies to hold back on major investments.”
More on the 2016 Construction Giants: BD+C's John Caulfield examines how Turner uses to design-build, P3, Lean practices, and engineering services.
RETURN TO THE GIANTS 300 LANDING PAGE
Related Stories
MFPRO+ News | Dec 18, 2023
Berkeley, Calif., raises building height limits in downtown area
Facing a severe housing shortage, the City of Berkeley, Calif., increased the height limits on residential buildings to 12 stories in the area close to the University of California campus.
Green | Dec 18, 2023
Class B commercial properties gain more from LEED certification than Class A buildings
Class B office properties that are LEED certified command a greater relative benefit than LEED-certified Class A buildings, according to analysis from CBRE. The Class B LEED rent advantage over non-LEED is about three times larger than the premium earned by Class A LEED buildings.
Codes and Standards | Dec 18, 2023
ASHRAE releases guide on grid interactivity in the decarbonization process
A guide focusing on the critical role of grid interactivity in building decarbonization was recently published by ASHRAE. The Grid-Interactive Buildings for Decarbonization: Design and Operation Resource Guide provides information on maximizing carbon reduction through buildings’ interaction with the electric power grid.
Sustainable Design and Construction | Dec 14, 2023
Suffolk Construction establishes Suffolk Sustainability Group
Design veterans Steven Burke and Michael Swenson will lead the new sustainability initiative for Suffolk.
75 Top Building Products | Dec 13, 2023
75 top building products for 2023
From a bladeless rooftop wind energy system, to a troffer light fixture with built-in continuous visible light disinfection, innovation is plentiful in Building Design+Construction's annual 75 Top Products report.
Giants 400 | Dec 12, 2023
Top 15 Veterans Affairs Facility Construction Firms for 2023
Walsh Group, Turner Construction, BL Harbert, and Hoar Construction top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest Veterans Affairs facility general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 12, 2023
Top 35 Military Facility Construction Firms for 2023
Hensel Phelps, DPR Construction, Walsh Group, and Whiting-Turner top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest military facility general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Contractors | Dec 12, 2023
The average U.S. contractor has 8.5 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of November 2023
Associated Builders and Contractors reported today that its Construction Backlog Indicator inched up to 8.5 months in November from 8.4 months in October, according to an ABC member survey conducted Nov. 20 to Dec. 4. The reading is down 0.7 months from November 2022.
Giants 400 | Dec 11, 2023
Top 80 Local Government Building Construction Firms for 2023
Turner Construction, Clark Group, Holder Construction, and Pepper Construction top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest local government building general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 11, 2023
Top 50 State Government Building Construction Firms for 2023
Hensel Phelps, Turner Construction, Clark Group, and PCL Construction top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest state government building general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.