Overcapacity in global iron ore production was a major factor in keeping construction costs low through the first four months of 2015. And for the first time in years, subcontractor labor costs showed signs of softening.
Those are two key findings in the latest assessment of current and future pricing from IHS, the Englewood, Colo.-based market analysis firm.
IHS derives its monthly Cost Index from information it receives from member procurement executives working for several of the world’s largest construction and engineering companies, including AECOM and Bechtel. It breaks down those data into current pricing trends and projections for six months forward.
In April, its Cost Index was 46.2, a bit higher than 44.7 in March, but still below what IHS would consider a “neutral” reading. Its sub index for Materials/Equipment costs in April was 44.9 compared to 43.0 in March. And the April sub index for Subcontractor Labor costs stood at 49.1, compared to 48.7 in March.
Procurement execs from some of the world's largest construction and engineering firms report that costs for materials and labor are still falling, and are unlikely to see much inflation for the next six months. Chart: IHS
IHS notes that eight of 12 construction components it tracks registered falling prices in April, led by carbon steel pipe and fabricated structural steel. Both are victims of “bloated capacity, weak profit growth, and lackluster demand,” explains John Anton, IHS’s Director of Steel Services. Iron ore companies that, in response to demand from China’s steel industry, have initiated massive projects whose capacity, so far, “is far ahead of demand,” and is holding prices down.
Anton adds that while the iron ore market may have some ostensible similarities to the recent decline of crude oil prices, what’s different is that iron ore producers have shown no inclinations toward cutting production to match demand. (IHS points out that three quarters of China’s mines are losing money.)
IHS also notes that several global construction and engineering firms, particularly those in the oil and gas sectors, have been taking a “wait and see” approach to investing in larger capital projects. “The capex environment has yet to thaw,” asserts Mark Eisinger, IHS’s senior economist.
While some markets, like the U.S. South, are still experiencing shortages in skilled subcontractor labor, manpower costs have been receding. For the third consecutive month, the U.S. did not register higher month-to-month labor costs in April. And for the first time in this survey’s history, projections about labor costs over the next six months are below the neutral mark. The six-month cost index for subcontractor labor fell to 47.4 in April, compared to 55.2 in March.
The forward-looking index for materials and equipment, at 43.4 April, rose from March’s record low of 41.9, even as 10 of 12 components showed falling price expectations.
Related Stories
University Buildings | May 19, 2015
KU Jayhawks take a gander at a P3 development
The P3 concept is getting a tryout at the University of Kansas, where state funding for construction has fallen from 20% of project costs to about 11% over the last 10 years.
Retail Centers | May 18, 2015
ULI forecast sees clear skies for real estate over next three years
With asset availability declining in several sectors, rents and transactions should rise.
Contractors | May 18, 2015
Gilbane foresees double-digit growth in construction spending in 2015
In its Spring outlook, the construction company frets about hiring patterns that aren’t fully taking a project’s workload into account.
Architects | May 10, 2015
Harness the connection between managing risk and increasing profitability, Part 2
In Part 1, we covered taking control of the submittals schedule and managing RFIs. Let’s move on to properly allocating substitutions and limiting change orders.
Contractors | May 8, 2015
Trends in U.S. commercial building size in three charts
A new study by the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that there were 5.6 million commercial buildings in the U.S. in 2012, totaling 87 billion sf of floor space. This is a 14% increase in floor space since 2003.
Building Team | May 8, 2015
Construction industry adds 45,000 jobs in April
The construction industry saw an increase in jobs during the month of April after losing approximately 9,000 positions in March.
Building Team | May 8, 2015
Surety bond forms specifically for design-build projects now available
The documents are the first of their kind to be coauthored by designers and builders.
Engineers | May 6, 2015
Megadeals drive mergers and acquisitions in engineering and construction industry: FMI report
Large deals and the convergence of design and construction are spurring M&A activity in the engineering and construction industry, according to the FMI Mergers & Acquisitions Trends report.
High-rise Construction | May 6, 2015
Parks in the sky? Subterranean bike paths? Meet the livable city, designed in 3D
Today’s great cities must be resilient—and open—to many things, including the influx of humanity, writes Gensler co-CEO Andy Cohen.
Contractors | May 1, 2015
Construction workers among top U.S. drug users: study
Construction workers are topped only by miners when it comes to heavy drinking, according to a new study by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.
