Associated Builders and Contractors reported today that its Construction Backlog Indicator inched up to 8.5 months in November from 8.4 months in October, according to an ABC member survey conducted Nov. 20 to Dec. 4. The reading is down 0.7 months from November 2022.
View ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index tables for November. View the full Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index data series.
Despite the monthly increase, backlog is currently 0.8 months lower than at July’s cyclical peak. The sharpest declines over that span occurred among contractors with more than $100 million in annual revenues, who collectively reported fewer than 10 months of backlog in November for the first time since the second quarter of 2018.
ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales and staffing levels increased in November, while the reading for profit margins fell. All three readings remain above the threshold of 50, indicating expectations for growth over the next six months.
“A growing number of contractors are reporting declines in backlog,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “The interest rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve appear to be making more of a mark on the economy. Not only has the cost of capital risen over the past 20+ months, but credit conditions are also tightening, rendering project financing even more challenging.
“The good news is that certain interest rates have begun to fall in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, perhaps as early as the first quarter,” said Basu. “Still, 2024 is poised to be weaker from a construction demand perspective for many firms, especially those that depend heavily on private developers. Those operating in public construction and/or industrial segments should meet with less resistance on average.”
![The average U.S. contractor has 8.5 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of November 2023](/sites/default/files/inline-images/The%20average%20U.S.%20contractor%20has%208.5%20months%20worth%20of%20construction%20work%20in%20the%20pipeline%2C%20as%20of%20November%202023%201.jpg)
![The average U.S. contractor has 8.5 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of November 2023](/sites/default/files/inline-images/The%20average%20U.S.%20contractor%20has%208.5%20months%20worth%20of%20construction%20work%20in%20the%20pipeline%2C%20as%20of%20November%202023%202.jpg)
Related Stories
| Jun 13, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Scaling change in a changing industry, Chris Mayer, Suffolk Construction
Suffolk’s CIO Chris Mayer talks about the firm’s framework for vetting and implementing new technologies and processes.
| Jun 12, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: From job site to factory, the future of commercial construction, Tyler Goss, Turner
Turner Construction’s Tyler Goss presents the construction giant’s breakthrough “job site as a factory” initiative.
| May 30, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Finding the money for your clients' projects, Paul Westlake, Jr., DLR Group|WRL
Architect Paul Westlake, Jr., shares his methods for adding value to projects through creative financing.
Daylighting | May 30, 2017
Sun, sky brightness, and glow: Making the most of daylight [AIA course]
To some project teams, “daylighting” means using glass area to admit direct sunlight, period.
Security/Fire Protection | May 30, 2017
Security begins when you close the door [AIA course]
Selecting door and window systems for any building project demands a complete articulation of safety and security concerns.
Codes and Standards | May 30, 2017
Industry Groups move toward Unified Green Building Model Code in 2018
The effort involves combining ASHRAE's Standard 189.1 with the International Green Construction Code.
Codes and Standards | May 30, 2017
OSHA suspends electronic injury, illness reporting requirement
The agency is keeping records from being publicly disclosed—for now.
Codes and Standards | May 30, 2017
Florida preparing to adjust to new building elevation requirements
New floodplain maps and state code changes loom.
Codes and Standards | May 30, 2017
Heated debate over whether Calif.’s prevailing wage requirement stymies affordable housing
There’s disagreement around how much pay regulations add to cost of projects.
Reconstruction & Renovation | May 30, 2017
Achieving deep energy retrofits in historic and modern-era buildings [AIA course]
Success in retrofit projects requires an entirely different mindset than in new construction, writes Randolph Croxton, FAIA, LEED AP, President of Croxton Collaborative Architects.