In 2017, the A.T. Kearney Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index concluded, “Investors are bullish about economic growth and FDI [Foreign Direct Investment] prospects, but are monitoring political risks for abrupt changes to the business environment.”
Fast-forward to 2018, and that monitoring is heightened. Trade negotiations and legislation having an impact include: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, President Trump’s renegotiation of NAFTA and other trade agreements, the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act of 2017 (FIRRMA), and tariffs and trade wars.
Some of these actions may have their intended effect of protecting U.S. companies and the nation’s security. For example, the construction industry should reap benefits from tax cuts that lower their effective tax rates. But while easing financial burdens on U.S. businesses—especially small businesses—may be good for the economy, there is widespread concern regarding actions seen as hostile to international trade. Governmental proceedings, as they unfold day-to-day, are very dynamic and fluid. They represent a confluence of political, economic, security, and social issues, and the complexity of the situation is currently causing large international companies to press pause on their investments.
Yet FDI is critical to a thriving domestic economy. According to the Office of the Chief Economist within the U.S. Department of Commerce, “FDI supports a host of benefits in the United States, such as good jobs and innovation resulting from research and development.” And historically, the U.S. has been about average in terms of its restrictiveness on foreign investment. Currently, however, Congress is reviewing FIRRMA, a proposed bill that seeks to protect national security by limiting foreign control of the country’s critical infrastructure.
Significant upheaval was triggered in the first half of 2018, when the White House announced a 25% tariff on foreign-made steel and 10% tariff on aluminum. The action was largely a response to China’s perceived “dumping” of cheap steel and it made a statement about the Trump administration’s attitude toward global trade relations and the perceived status quo.
Maintaining a healthy global economy based upon reciprocal economic relationships—and with the U.S. as an equitable participant—is key to the stability of our own economy.
Stakes rose much higher in early July, when the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on $34 billion of goods imported from China. China responded with an equivalent tariff on $34 billion of goods it imports from the U.S. By July 10, the Trump administration had released a list of $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that could be subject to 10% tariffs. Hearings on these proposed tariffs are scheduled to occur Aug. 20-23.
Beyond this escalation between the world’s two largest economies, Canada announced that it would match (but not escalate) the dollar value of the U.S.’s steel and aluminum tariffs with tariffs of its own, with affected products including consumer goods. Europe is pondering how it can respond to U.S. tariffs without becoming embroiled in a damaging trade war—a task made more difficult by President Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on European auto imports. Switzerland, Russia, China, India, Canada, Mexico, Norway, and the European Union have begun working with the World Trade Organization (WTO), pursuing dispute settlement.
It’s impossible to judge just how long the domino effect will continue. Some experts are predicting that Europe, China, and other economic powerhouses will form mutually beneficial trade relationships with one another that exclude the U.S.
According to consulting and research firm Rhodium Group, Chinese acquisitions and investments in the U.S. fell 92% in the first five months of this year. CSNBC recently reported “Foreign direct investment worldwide is on the decline due to trade war fears, immigration, and protectionist policies.” This follows FDI that was already in decline. According to the United Nations World Investment Report 2018, global foreign direct investment fell by 23% in 2017, and the UN expected it to grow little (or not at all) in 2018. On July 11, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released numbers on expenditures initiated by foreign investors in 2017 (the latest available data), and those expenditures were down 32% since 2016.
Various experts have reported that the construction industry is already feeling the effects of the recent tariffs, not only with higher steel and aluminum prices, but with higher prices on Canadian lumber. The news outlet Route Fifty shared a Moody’s Investors Service report which found that “states with the greatest trade dependency on China, Canada, and Mexico are at highest risk of seeing their tax revenues decline—namely Michigan, Kentucky, and Louisiana.” The report also identified manufacturing hubs like Detroit and Greenville, S.C., as well as port cities, as being at high risk.
FDI raises the standard of living for communities and creates opportunities for construction companies across the U.S. Maintaining a healthy global economy based upon reciprocal economic relationships—and with the U.S. as an equitable participant—is key to the stability of our own economy.
Brian Gallagher is Vice President of Marketing with O’Neal Inc., an integrated architecture, engineering, and construction firm. He can be reached at bgallagher@onealinc.com.
Related Stories
Sustainability | Jul 1, 2024
Amazon, JPMorgan Chase among companies collaborating with ILFI to advance carbon verification
Four companies (Amazon, JPMorgan Chase, JLL, and Prologis) are working with the International Living Future Institute to support development of new versions of Zero Carbon Certification.
K-12 Schools | Jul 1, 2024
New guidelines for securing schools and community spaces released by the Door Security and Safety Foundation
The Door Security and Safety Foundation (DSSF), in collaboration with Door and Hardware Institute (DHI), recently released of “Are Your Door Openings Secure?.” The document provides guidelines to equip school administrators, building management personnel, and community leaders with a clear roadmap to create a secure and safe environment.
Products and Materials | Jun 30, 2024
Top products from AIA 2024
This month, Building Design+Construction editors are bringing you the top products displayed at the 2024 AIA Conference on Architecture & Design. Nearly 550 building product manufacturers showcased their products—here are 17 that caught our eye.
University Buildings | Jun 28, 2024
The American University in Cairo launches a 270,000-sf expansion of its campus in New Cairo, Egypt
In New Cairo, Egypt, The American University in Cairo (AUC) has broken ground on a roughly 270,000-sf expansion of its campus. The project encompasses two new buildings intended to enhance the physical campus and support AUC’s mission to provide top-tier education and research.
MFPRO+ New Projects | Jun 27, 2024
Chicago’s long-vacant Spire site will be home to a two-tower residential development
In downtown Chicago, the site of the planned Chicago Spire, at the confluence of Lake Michigan and the Chicago River, has sat vacant since construction ceased in the wake of the Great Recession. In the next few years, the site will be home to a new two-tower residential development, 400 Lake Shore.
Codes and Standards | Jun 27, 2024
Berkeley, Calif., voters will decide whether to tax large buildings with gas hookups
After a court struck down a first-in-the-nation ban on gas hookups in new buildings last year, voters in Berkeley, Calif., will have their say in November on a measure to tax large buildings that use natural gas.
Mass Timber | Jun 26, 2024
Oregon State University builds a first-of-its-kind mass timber research lab
In Corvallis, Oreg., the Jen-Hsun Huang and Lori Mills Huang Collaborative Innovation Complex at Oregon State University aims to achieve a distinction among the world’s experimental research labs: It will be the first all-mass-timber lab meeting rigorous vibration criteria (2000 micro-inches per second, or MIPS).
Sustainability | Jun 26, 2024
5 ways ESG can influence design and create opportunities
Gensler sustainability leaders Stacey Olson, Anthony Brower, and Audrey Handelman share five ways they're rethinking designing for ESG, using a science-based approach that can impact the ESG value chain.
Student Housing | Jun 25, 2024
P3 student housing project with 176 units slated for Purdue University Fort Wayne
A public/private partnership will fund a four-story, 213,000 sf apartment complex on Purdue University Fort Wayne’s (PFW’s) North Campus in Fort Wayne, Indiana. The P3 entity was formed exclusively for this property.
Sustainability | Jun 24, 2024
CBRE to use Climate X platform to help clients calculate climate-related risks
CBRE will use risk analysis platform Climate X to provide climate risk data to commercial renters and property owners. The agreement will help clients calculate climate-related risks and return on investments for retrofits or acquisitions that can boost resiliency.