Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
| Oct 4, 2012
Career development, workplace environment programs key to retention at HMC Architects
Architecture firm take a multifaceted approach to professional development.
| Oct 4, 2012
Foundation tightens HMC Architects bond with local communities
Founded in 2009 with an initial endowment of $1.9 million, HMC’s nonprofit Designing Futures Foundation (DFF) has donated about $230,000 in its three years of existence, including $105,000 in scholarships to California students. The grants help promising high schoolers with an interest in architecture, design, engineering, education, or healthcare pay for expenses like test preparation services, computers, and college entrance exam fees and tuition. The scholarships can be extended for up to five years of college.
| Oct 4, 2012
Gilbane publishes Fall 2012 construction industry economic report
Report outlines fluctuation in construction spending; predicts continued movement toward recovery.
| Oct 3, 2012
Fifth public comment period now open for update to USGBC's LEED Green Building Program
LEED v4 drafts and the public comment tool are now available on the newly re-launched, re-envisioned USGBC.org website.
| Oct 2, 2012
Mirvish and Gehry unveil conceptual design to transform Toronto’s entertainment district
Reimagining of King Street Entertainment District supports Toronto’s cultural corridor.
| Oct 2, 2012
Dow Business Services Center building named 2012 “America’s Best Buildings of the Year” winner
Building constructed with air sealing and insulation products from Dow Building Solutions.
| Oct 2, 2012
Bernards working on project at L.A. White Memorial Medical Center
The new facility is a $15-million, 41,000-sf concrete structure which includes three stories of medical office space atop a three-level parking garage.
| Oct 1, 2012
Tyco completes separation process, now largest pure-play fire protection and security business
Tyco Integrated Security focused on delivering security solutions to commercial businesses.
| Sep 28, 2012
Seattle is home to first LEED-certified modular radiation center
By using modular construction and strategic site design, RAD Medical Systems built the first radiation center to receive LEED certification.
| Sep 26, 2012
EDITORIAL OPPORTUNITY – BD+C Greenbuild 2012 Issue
Your firm is invited to contribute to this special issue, which will be distributed at Greenbuild San Francisco, Nov. 14-16, 2012.