Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
| Jun 18, 2014
Architecture Billings Index shows increase in design activity
The American Institute of Architects reported that the May ABI score was 52.6, up sharply from a mark of 49.6 in April. This score reflects an increase in design activity.
| Jun 17, 2014
Must see: If music were architecture in 27 illustrations
From Miles Davis to Björk to Manu Chao to Bach, Babina visualizes how these sounds will look like if they were visible in the form of architecture.
| Jun 17, 2014
Nation's largest Thai Buddhist temple opens near Boston
The $60 million facility built in honor of King Rama IX of Thailand is the largest Thai Buddhist temple outside of Thailand.
| Jun 17, 2014
U.S. Census report examines why Americans move
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 35.9 million people moved between 2012 and 2013, meaning that 11.7% of the U.S. population moved in one year. The report seeks to examine why.
| Jun 17, 2014
World's tallest pair of towers to serve as 'environmental catalyst' for China
The Phoenix Towers are expected to reach 1 km, the same height as Adrian Smith and Gordon Gill's Kingdom Tower, but would set a record for multiple towers in one development.
| Jun 16, 2014
6 U.S. cities at the forefront of innovation districts
A new Brookings Institution study records the emergence of “competitive places that are also cool spaces.”
| Jun 13, 2014
Gilbane Building Company names new president and chief operating officer
Gilbane Building company hires new president and COO
| Jun 13, 2014
First look: BIG's spiraling museum for watchmaker Audemars Piguet
The glass-and-steel pavilion's spiral structure acts as a storytelling device for the company's history.
| Jun 13, 2014
Grocery stores, restaurants make neighborhoods most desirable [infographic]
John Burns Real Estate Consulting ranks the top 25 housing amenities by generation, based on feedback from more than 20,000 home shoppers.
| Jun 12, 2014
Zaha Hadid's 'gravity defying' Issam Fares Institute opens in Beirut
The design builds upon the institute’s mission as a catalyst and connector between AUB, researchers and the global community.