Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
Transit Facilities | Feb 12, 2015
Gensler proposes network of cycle highways in London’s unused underground
Unused tube lines would host pedestrian paths, cycle routes, cultural spaces, and retail outlets.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 11, 2015
Primer: Using 'parallel estimating' to pinpoint costs on healthcare construction projects
As pressure increases to understand capital cost prior to the first spade touching dirt, more healthcare owners are turning to advanced estimating processes, like parallel estimating, to improve understanding of exposure, writes CBRE Healthcare's Andrew Sumner.
Transportation & Parking Facilities | Feb 11, 2015
11 of the nation’s best ‘Complete Streets’ policies of 2014
Austin, Texas, and Troy, N.Y., are among the cities with the strongest safe streets policies, according to a new report.
Sponsored | Roofing | Feb 11, 2015
New school blends with local architecture using Petersen metal roof
Perkins Eastman in Stamford, Conn., designed the school to emphasize and integrate the International Baccalaureate curriculum throughout.
Mixed-Use | Feb 11, 2015
Developer plans to turn Eero Saarinen's Bell Labs HQ into New Urbanist town center
Designed by Eero Saarinen in the late 1950s, the two-million-sf, steel-and-glass building was one of the best-funded and successful corporate research laboratories in the world.
Architects | Feb 11, 2015
Shortlist for 2015 Mies van der Rohe Award announced
Copenhagen, Berlin, and Rotterdam are the cities where most of the shortlisted works have been built.
BIM and Information Technology | Feb 10, 2015
Google's 3D scanning camera leaves the lab
Google is said to be partnering with LG to create a version of the technology for public release sometime this year.
Steel Buildings | Feb 10, 2015
Korean researchers discover 'super steel'
The new alloy makes steel as strong as titanium.
Architects | Feb 9, 2015
The generalist architect vs. the specialist architect
The corporate world today quite often insists on hiring specialists, but the generalists have an intrinsic quality to adapt to new horizons or even cultural shifts in the market, writes SRG Partnership's Gary Harris.
Museums | Feb 9, 2015
Herzog & de Meuron's M+ museum begins construction in Hong Kong
When completed, M+ will be one of the first buildings in the Foster + Partners-planned West Kowloon Cultural District.
