Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
K-12 SCHOOL SECTOR GIANTS: To succeed, school design must replicate real-world environments
Whether new or reconstructed, schools must meet new demands that emanate from the real world and rapidly adapt to different instructional and learning modes, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
MULTIFAMILY AEC GIANTS: Slowdown prompts developers to ask: Will the luxury rentals boom hold?
For the last three years, rental apartments have occupied the hot corner in residential construction, as younger people gravitated toward renting to be closer to urban centers and jobs. But at around 360,000 annual starts, multifamily might be peaking, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
UNIVERSITY SECTOR GIANTS: Collaboration, creativity, technology—hallmarks of today’s campus facilities
At a time when competition for the cream of the student/faculty crop is intensifying, colleges and universities must recognize that students and parents are coming to expect an education environment that foments collaboration, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 7, 2015
RECONSTRUCTION AEC GIANTS: Restorations breathe new life into valuable older buildings
AEC Giants discuss opportunities and complications associated with renovation, restoration, and adaptive reuse construction work.
BIM and Information Technology | Aug 6, 2015
After refueling its capital tank, WeWork acquires BIM consultant Case
The merger is expected to help standardize how WeWork designs and builds out office space.
Giants 400 | Aug 6, 2015
BIM GIANTS: Robotic reality capture, gaming systems, virtual reality—AEC Giants continue tech frenzy
Given their size, AEC Giants possess the resources and scale to research and test the bevy of software and hardware solutions on the market. Some have created internal innovation labs and fabrication shops to tinker with emerging technologies and create custom software tools. Others have formed R&D teams to test tech tools on the job site.
Giants 400 | Aug 6, 2015
GIANTS 300 REPORT: Top 115 Healthcare Architecture Firms
HDR, Stantec, and Perkins+Will top Building Design+Construction's 2015 ranking of the largest healthcare architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
Giants 400 | Aug 6, 2015
HEALTHCARE AEC GIANTS: Hospital and medical office construction facing a slow but steady recovery
Construction of hospitals and medical offices is expected to shake off its lethargy in 2015 and recover modestly over the next several years, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Codes and Standards | Aug 6, 2015
ConsensusDocs releases new CM agency contract standard agreement
For use when owner acts as the construction manager, hires a construction manager, or uses multiple prime contractors
Giants 400 | Aug 5, 2015
GIANTS 300 REPORT: Top 135 Office Sector Architecture Firms
Gensler, HOK, and Perkins+Will top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest office sector architecture and architecture/engineering firms.
