Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
Architects | Feb 25, 2016
12 architects selected for 2016 AIA Young Architects Award
Winners include Amy Kalar and Karen Lu, both with HGA, BNIM's Carey Nagle, and MSR Design's Bob Ganser.
Architects | Feb 24, 2016
Is the booming freelance economy a threat to AEC firms?
By shifting the work (and revenue) to freelancers, “platform capitalism” startups have taken considerable market share from traditional businesses.
Industry Research | Feb 22, 2016
8 of the most interesting trends from Gensler’s Design Forecast 2016
Technology is running wild in Gensler’s 2016 forecast, as things like virtual reality, "smart" buildings and products, and fully connected online and offline worlds are making their presence felt throughout many of the future's top trends.
Market Data | Feb 17, 2016
AIA reports slight contraction in Architecture Billings Index
Multifamily residential sector improving after sluggish 2015.
Architects | Feb 17, 2016
Developing a strategy for getting paid on time
Though talking about money can be difficult, creating and following a clear plan for getting paid is essential for your firm to thrive, writes Steve Whitehorn of Whitehorn Financial.
Architects | Feb 11, 2016
Stantec agrees to acquire VOA Associates
This deal reflects an industry where consolidation is a strategic necessity for more firms.
Market Data | Feb 11, 2016
AIA: Continued growth expected in nonresidential construction
The American Institute of Architects’ semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates a growth of 8% in construction spending in 2016, and 6.7% the following year.
Architects | Feb 11, 2016
AIA elevates 149 members and eight international architects to the College of Fellows
AIA Fellowship recognizes significant contributions to profession of architecture and society.
Architects | Feb 9, 2016
Architect faces prison sentence for VA medical center contract conspiracy
Admits to using inside information to gain VA contracts in Cleveland
Game Changers | Feb 5, 2016
London’s ’shadowless’ towers
Using advanced design computation, a design team demonstrates how to ‘erase’ a building’s shadows.
