Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
Architects | Dec 1, 2017
The third wave of urban waterfront development
The nature of waterfront redevelopment has been evolutionary, in the truest sense of the word.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 29, 2017
First Porsche, now Aston Martin: Sports car maker co-develops Miami condo tower *UPDATED
The 391-unit Aston Martin Residences will feature seven penthouses and a duplex penthouse, all with private pools and terraces overlooking Biscayne Bay.
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2017
2018 outlook: Economists point to slowdown, AEC professionals say ‘no way’
Multifamily housing and senior living developments head the list of the hottest sectors heading into 2018, according a survey of 356 AEC professionals.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 28, 2017
Elementary school, daycare campus will serve Toronto’s skyrise neighborhood
The $65 million Canoe Landing Campus brings much needed social infrastructure to the 20,000 residents of Toronto’s CityPlace towers.
Architects | Nov 28, 2017
Adding value through integrated technology requires a human touch
To help strike that delicate balance between the human and the high-tech, we must first have an in-depth understanding of our client’s needs as well as a manufacturer’s capabilities.
Architects | Nov 17, 2017
How to leverage historic tax credits
About 90% of the time prospective clients are not aware of historic tax credits.
Sponsored | Architects | Nov 16, 2017
Growing your AEC firm through an exceptional client experience
Many small AEC firms don’t feel they have the time to focus and create clear marketing messages.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 15, 2017
6 noteworthy multifamily developments: artists housing, tech lofts, resort-style senior living
These recently completed projects represent emerging trends and design innovations in the multifamily sector.
Architects | Nov 9, 2017
AECOM and Van Alen Institute announce four Urban SOS® 2017 finalists with bold ideas for creating more equitable cities
Multidisciplinary student teams were challenged to redefine the traditional “hour city” radius, providing broader access to opportunity.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 8, 2017
No place like home: LA’s The Six provides permanent supportive housing for veterans
The 52-unit development gives hope and dignity to homeless or disabled veterans and others in need.
