Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
Architects | Sep 6, 2018
S/L/A/M Collaborative completes merger with L.A.-based firm
The healthcare sector is one of Frank Webb Architects’ strengths.
Giants 400 | Sep 6, 2018
What's happening at 89 design firms
The latest developments at 89 of the nation's largest architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms.
Architects | Sep 6, 2018
Little details, big questions: Occupancy planning 101 for healthcare facilities
Transitioning into a new hospital is no easy feat and daily tasks can have a huge impact.
Architects | Aug 14, 2018
AIA takes a firmer stand on making schools safer with better design
The Institute urges the formation of a federal clearinghouse for best practices, and wants security-related design to be eligible for grants.
Architects | Aug 9, 2018
The convergence of product design and architecture
Great design is born out of simplicity, purity, timelessness, unobtrusiveness and intuitiveness.
Architects | Aug 1, 2018
Client experience as competitive advantage for AEC firms
Clients are looking for solutions to their business problems from collaborative advisors. They’ve come to expect a higher level of service and detail than what was provided in the past.
AEC Tech | Jul 24, 2018
Weidt Group’s Net Energy Optimizer now available as software as a service
The proprietary energy analysis tool is open for use by the public.
Building Owners | Jul 17, 2018
Are we facing a new era in Foreign Direct Investment?
The construction industry is already feeling the effects of the recent tariffs, not only with higher steel and aluminum prices, but with higher prices on Canadian lumber.
Codes and Standards | Jul 17, 2018
NIMBYism, generational divide threaten plan for net-zero village in St. Paul, Minn.
The ambitious redevelopment proposal for a former Ford automotive plant creates tension.