Following consistently increasing demand for design services throughout most of 2013, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has posted its first consecutive months of contraction since May and June of 2012.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the December ABI score was 48.5, down from a mark of 49.8 in November. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
The new projects inquiry index was 59.2, up from the reading of 57.8 the previous month.
“What we thought last month was an isolated dip now bears closer examination to see what is causing the slowdown in demand for architectural services,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “It is possible that some of this can be attributed to the anxiety in the marketplace caused by the shutdown of the federal government, but it will be important to see how business conditions fare through the first quarter of the new year when we no longer have end of the year issues to deal with.”
Key December ABI highlights:
• Regional averages: West (53.2), South (51.2), Midwest (47.0), Northeast (42.8)
• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.8), mixed practice 51.0), commercial / industrial (47.1), institutional (44.8)
• Project inquiries index: 59.2
Note: The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the index and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline. The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average.
More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the White Paper Architecture Billings as a Leading Indicator of Construction: Analysis of the Relationship Between a Billings Index and Construction Spending on the AIA website.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 30, 2022
Yardi Matrix releases new national rent growth forecast
Rents in most American cities continue to rise slightly each month, but are not duplicating the rapid escalation rates exhibited in 2021.
Headquarters | Jun 30, 2022
Lenovo to build its new global headquarters in Beijing
Washington, D.C.-based architecture and design firm CallisonRTKL has announced it will create the new global headquarters in Beijing for Lenovo Group, a Chinese multinational personal technology company.
Mass Timber | Jun 29, 2022
Mass timber competition: building to net-zero winning proposals
The 2022 Mass Timber Competition: Building to Net-Zero is a design competition to expand the use of mass timber in the United States by demonstrating its versatility across building types and its ability to reduce the carbon footprint of the built environment.
Laboratories | Jun 29, 2022
The "collaboratory" brings digital innovation to the classroom
The Collaboratory—a mix of collaboration and laboratory—is a networking center being designed at the University of Denver’s College of Business.
Airports | Jun 29, 2022
BIG and HOK’s winning design for Zurich airport’s new terminal
Two years ago, Zurich Airport, which opened in the 1950s, launched an international design competition to replace the aging Dock A—the airport’s largest dock.
Museums | Jun 28, 2022
The California Science Center breaks grounds on its Air and Space Center
The California Science Center—a hands-on science center in Los Angeles—recently broke ground on its Samuel Oschin Air and Space Center.
Contractors | Jun 27, 2022
Reverse mentorship: A model for the future of the construction workforce
Reverse mentorship can help seasoned professionals develop new skills, stay connected with younger generations, and gain future-forward insights for life and business.
Building Team | Jun 27, 2022
Chapel of St. Ignatius by Steven Holl Architects receives AIA’s twenty-five year award
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) is honoring the Chapel of St. Ignatius in Seattle, designed by Steven Holl Architects, with its Twenty-five Year Award.
Green | Jun 22, 2022
The business case for passive house multifamily
A trio of Passive House experts talk about the true costs and benefits of passive house design and construction for multifamily projects.
Building Team | Jun 22, 2022
Design for new San Clemente Marine Safety Headquarters would create new public plaza
A proposed design by HMC Architects for a new San Clemente Marine Safety Headquarters makes creative use of the seaside topography of the Pacific Coast.