Following a modest two-month recovery in the level of demand for design services, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) again turned negative last month.
As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the March ABI score was 48.8, down sharply from a mark of 50.7 in February. This score reflects a decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 57.9, up from the reading of 56.8 the previous month.
With this release, the AIA has added a new indicator measuring the trends in new design contracts at architecture firms that can provide a strong signal of the direction of future architecture billings. The score for design contacts in March was 48.2.
“This protracted softening in demand for design services is a bit of a surprise given the overall strength of the market the last year and a half,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Hopefully, some of this can be attributed to severe weather conditions over this past winter. We will have a better sense if there is a reason for more serious concern over the next couple of months.”
Key March ABI highlights:
- Regional averages: South (52.8),West (50.7), Northeast (46.8), Midwest (46.6)
- Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (52.1), commercial / industrial (49.6), institutional (49.0), mixed practice (47.6)
- Project inquiries index: 57.9
- Design contracts index: 48.2
The regional and sector categories are calculated as a 3-month moving average, whereas the national index, design contracts and inquiries are monthly numbers.
About the AIA Architecture Billings Index
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), produced by the AIA Economics & Market Research Group, is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to twelve month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The diffusion indexes contained in the full report are derived from a monthly “Work-on-the-Boards” survey that is sent to a panel of AIA member-owned firms.
Participants are asked whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the month that just ended as compared to the prior month, and the results are then compiled into the ABI. These monthly results are also seasonally adjusted to allow for comparison to prior months. The monthly ABI index scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline.
The regional and sector data are formulated using a three-month moving average. More information on the ABI and the analysis of its relationship to construction activity can be found in the recently released White Paper, Designing the Construction Future: Reviewing the Performance and Extending the Applications of the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index on the AIA web site.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being.
Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jul 25, 2023
San Francisco seeks proposals for adaptive reuse of underutilized downtown office buildings
The City of San Francisco released a Request For Interest to identify office building conversions that city officials could help expedite with zoning changes, regulatory measures, and financial incentives.
Designers | Jul 25, 2023
The latest 'five in focus' healthcare interior design trends
HMC Architects’ Five in Focus blog series explores the latest trends, ideas, and innovations shaping the future of healthcare design.
Urban Planning | Jul 24, 2023
New York’s new ‘czar of public space’ ramps up pedestrian and bike-friendly projects
Having made considerable strides to make streets more accessible to pedestrians and bikers in recent years, New York City is continuing to build on that momentum. Ya-Ting Liu, the city’s first public realm officer, is shepherding $375 million in funding earmarked for projects intended to make the city more environmentally friendly and boost quality of life.
Market Data | Jul 24, 2023
Leading economists call for 2% increase in building construction spending in 2024
Following a 19.7% surge in spending for commercial, institutional, and industrial buildings in 2023, leading construction industry economists expect spending growth to come back to earth in 2024, according to the July 2023 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel.
Hotel Facilities | Jul 21, 2023
In Phoenix, a former motel transforms into a boutique hotel with a midcentury vibe
The Egyptian Motor Hotel’s 48 guest rooms come with midcentury furnishings ranging from egg chairs to Bluetooth speakers that look like Marshall amplifiers.
Office Buildings | Jul 20, 2023
The co-worker as the new office amenity
Incentivizing, rather than mandating the return to the office, is the key to bringing back happy employees that want to work from the office. Spaces that are designed and curated for human-centric experiences will attract employees back into the workplace, and in turn, make office buildings thrive once again. Perkins&Will’s Wyatt Frantom offers a macro to micro view of the office market and the impact of employees on the future of work.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 19, 2023
World’s first prefab operating room with fully automated disinfection technology opens in New York
The first prefabricated operating room in the world with fully automated disinfection technology opened recently at the University of Rochester Medicine Orthopedics Surgery Center in Henrietta, N.Y. The facility, developed in a former Sears store, features a system designed by Synergy Med, called Clean Cube, that had never been applied to an operating space before. The components of the Clean Cube operating room were custom premanufactured and then shipped to the site to be assembled.
Performing Arts Centers | Jul 18, 2023
Perelman Performing Arts Center will soon open at Ground Zero
In September, New York City will open a new performing arts center in Lower Manhattan, two decades after the master plan for Ground Zero called for a cultural component there. At a cost of $500 million, including $130 million donated by former mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, the Perelman Performing Arts Center (dubbed PAC NYC) is a 138-foot-tall cube-shaped building that glows at night.
Codes and Standards | Jul 17, 2023
Outdated federal rainfall analysis impacting infrastructure projects, flood insurance
Severe rainstorms, sometimes described as “atmospheric rivers” or “torrential thunderstorms,” are making the concept of a “1-in-100-year flood event” obsolete, according to a report from First Street Foundation, an organization focused on weather risk research.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 13, 2023
Walkable neighborhoods encourage stronger sense of community
Adults who live in walkable neighborhoods are more likely to interact with their neighbors and have a stronger sense of community than people who live in car-dependent communities, according to a report by the Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science at University of California San Diego.
