In its latest report, the Census Bureau estimates that annualized starts of structures with five or more units stood at 445,000 in October, up 28.2% over the same month a year earlier. However, multifamily permits were only 5.8% higher.
Could the long-predicted slowdown in the multifamily boom finally be happening? The market researcher Axiometrics looked at its identified supply data and concludes that multifamily deliveries could peak by mid-year 2017.
Over the next three quarters, though, this market sector should thrive. Axiometrics expects deliveries to grow by more than 10%, to 91,957, in the fourth quarter of 2016, then recede a bit to 91,721 in the first quarter of 2017 (which would still be nearly 49% more than 1Q 2016), and then jump to 102,617 deliveries in 2Q 2017.
Axiometrics estimates that a total of 343,582 apartment units will come onto the market in 2017, 55.7% of which in the first half of the year.
New York is expected to lead the nation in new apartment deliveries next year, with 27,210, representing an 88% leap over 2016. Axiometrics points out, though, that New York’s delivery schedule “is a telling example of how construction delays have affected the apartment market.” Those delays are, in part, the result of an ongoing construction labor shortage that is expected to continue for at least the next year. New York’s apartment deliveries are expected to fall precipitously in 2018, to 13,312.
Following New York in projected apartment deliveries next year are Dallas (up 36.0% to 23,821), Houston (down 21.2% to 17,313), Atlanta (up 38.8% to 13,210), and Washington, D.C. (up 33.7% to 13,141). All of these metros are expected to see deliveries plummet in 2018. Houston is expected to deliver just 956 new apartment units that year.
CHART: APARTMENT DELIVERIES BY YEAR
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Apr 4, 2023
Acing your multifamily housing amenities for the modern renter
Eighty-seven percent of residents consider amenities when signing or renewing a lease. Here are three essential amenity areas to focus on, according to market research and trends.
Resiliency | Apr 4, 2023
New bill would limit housing sprawl in fire- and flood-prone areas of California
A new bill in the California Assembly would limit housing sprawl in fire- and flood-prone areas across the state. For the last several decades, new housing has spread to more remote areas of the Golden State.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 31, 2023
EV charging stations in multifamily housing
Ryan Gram, PE, EV Charging Practice Leader at engineering firm Kimley-Horn, provides expert advice about the "business side" of installing EV charging stations in apartment and mixed-use communities. Gram speaks with BD+C Executive Editor Robert Cassidy.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023
Washington state House passes bill banning single-family zoning
The Washington state House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would legalize duplexes or fourplexes in almost every neighborhood of every city in the state.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023
Momentum building for green retrofits in New York City co-ops, condos
Many New York City co-op and condo boards had been resistant to the idea of approving green retrofits and energy-efficiency upgrades, but that reluctance might be in retreat.
Legislation | Mar 24, 2023
New York lawmakers set sights on unsafe lithium-ion batteries used in electric bikes and scooters
Lawmakers in New York City and statewide have moved to quell the growing number of fires caused by lithium-ion batteries used in electric bikes and scooters.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023
Multifamily developers offering new car-free projects in car-centric cities
Cities in the South and Southwest have eased zoning rules with parking space mandates in recent years to allow developers to build new housing with less parking.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023
Coastal multifamily developers, owners expect huge jump in insurance costs
In Texas and Florida, where Hurricane Ian caused $50 billion in damage last year, insurance costs are nearly 50% higher than in 2022.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 24, 2023
Average size of new apartments dropped sharply in 2022
The average size of new apartments in 2022 dropped sharply in 2022, as tracked by RentCafe. Across the U.S., the average new apartment size was 887 sf, down 30 sf from 2021, which was the largest year-over-year decrease.
Geothermal Technology | Mar 22, 2023
Lendlease secures grants for New York’s largest geothermal residential building
Lendlease and joint venture partner Aware Super, one of Australia’s largest superannuation funds, have acquired $4 million in support from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to build a geoexchange system at 1 Java Street in Brooklyn. Once completed, the all-electric property will be the largest residential project in New York State to use a geothermal heat exchange system.