In its latest report, the Census Bureau estimates that annualized starts of structures with five or more units stood at 445,000 in October, up 28.2% over the same month a year earlier. However, multifamily permits were only 5.8% higher.
Could the long-predicted slowdown in the multifamily boom finally be happening? The market researcher Axiometrics looked at its identified supply data and concludes that multifamily deliveries could peak by mid-year 2017.
Over the next three quarters, though, this market sector should thrive. Axiometrics expects deliveries to grow by more than 10%, to 91,957, in the fourth quarter of 2016, then recede a bit to 91,721 in the first quarter of 2017 (which would still be nearly 49% more than 1Q 2016), and then jump to 102,617 deliveries in 2Q 2017.
Axiometrics estimates that a total of 343,582 apartment units will come onto the market in 2017, 55.7% of which in the first half of the year.
New York is expected to lead the nation in new apartment deliveries next year, with 27,210, representing an 88% leap over 2016. Axiometrics points out, though, that New York’s delivery schedule “is a telling example of how construction delays have affected the apartment market.” Those delays are, in part, the result of an ongoing construction labor shortage that is expected to continue for at least the next year. New York’s apartment deliveries are expected to fall precipitously in 2018, to 13,312.
Following New York in projected apartment deliveries next year are Dallas (up 36.0% to 23,821), Houston (down 21.2% to 17,313), Atlanta (up 38.8% to 13,210), and Washington, D.C. (up 33.7% to 13,141). All of these metros are expected to see deliveries plummet in 2018. Houston is expected to deliver just 956 new apartment units that year.
CHART: APARTMENT DELIVERIES BY YEAR
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Feb 18, 2015
Commercial real estate developers optimistic, but concerned about taxes, jobs outlook
The outlook for the commercial real estate industry remains strong despite growing concerns over sluggish job creation and higher taxes, according to a new survey of commercial real estate professionals by NAIOP.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
NYC multifamily sales increased by 39% in 2014
For New York City as a whole, $20 million-plus deals accounted for more than half of all transactions.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
California launches pilot program to finance multifamily retrofits for energy efficiency
The Obama Administration and the state of California are teaming with the Chicago-based MacArthur Foundation on a pilot program whose goal is to unlock Property-Assessed Clean Energy financing for multifamily housing.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
Young Millennials likely to return home
Ninety percent of individuals born between 1980 and 1984 and who hold a Bachelor’s degree left home before they were 27 years hold. However, half of this group later returned to their parents’ home, according to a study by the National Longitudinal Study of Youth.
High-rise Construction | Feb 17, 2015
Work begins on Bjarke Ingels' pixelated tower in Calgary
Construction on Calgary’s newest skyscraper, the 66-story Telus Sky Tower, recently broke ground.
Mixed-Use | Feb 13, 2015
First Look: Sacramento Planning Commission approves mixed-use tower by the new Kings arena
The project, named Downtown Plaza Tower, will have 16 stories and will include a public lobby, retail and office space, 250 hotel rooms, and residences at the top of the tower.
Codes and Standards | Feb 12, 2015
New Appraisal Institute form aids in analysis of green commercial building features
The Institute’s Commercial Green and Energy Efficient Addendum offers a communication tool that lenders can use as part of the scope of work.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 9, 2015
GSEs and their lenders were active on the multifamily front in 2014
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securitized more than $57 billion for 850,000-plus units.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 6, 2015
Fannie Mae to offer lower interest rates to LEED-certified multifamily properties
For certified properties, Fannie Mae is now granting a 10 basis point reduction in the interest rate of a multifamily refinance, acquisition, or supplemental mortgage loan.
Cultural Facilities | Feb 5, 2015
5 developments selected as 'best in urban placemaking'
Falls Park on the Reedy in Greenville, S.C., and the Grand Rapids (Mich.) Downtown Market are among the finalists for the 2015 Rudy Bruner Award for Urban Excellence.