Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Aug 17, 2022
California strip mall goes multifamily residential
Tiny Tim Plaza started out as a gas station and a dozen or so stores. Now it’s a thriving mixed-use community, minus the gas station.
| Aug 17, 2022
Focusing on building envelope design and commissioning
Building envelope design is constantly evolving as new products and assemblies are developed.
| Aug 17, 2022
New York to deploy 30,000 window-sized electric heat pumps in city-owned apartments
New York officials recently announced the state and the city will invest $70 million to roll out 30,000 window-sized electric heat pumps in city-owned apartments.
| Aug 17, 2022
IBM’s former office buildings in Boca Raton turn into a modern tech campus
Built in 1968, the Boca Raton Innovation Campus (BRiC), at 1.7 million square feet, is the largest office campus in Florida.
| Aug 16, 2022
DOE funds 18 projects developing tech to enable buildings to store carbon
The Department of Energy announced $39 million in awards for 18 projects that are developing technologies to transform buildings into net carbon storage structures.
| Aug 16, 2022
Multifamily holds strong – for now
All leading indicators show that the multifamily sector is shrugging off rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and other economic challenges, and will continue to be a torrid market for design and construction firms for at least the rest of 2022.
| Aug 16, 2022
Cedars-Sinai Urgent Care Clinic’s high design for urgent care
The new Cedars-Sinai Los Feliz Urgent Care Clinic in Los Angeles plays against type, offering a stylized design to what are typically mundane, utilitarian buildings.
| Aug 15, 2022
IF you build it, will they come? The problem of staff respite in healthcare facilities
Architects and designers have long argued for the value of respite spaces in healthcare facilities.
| Aug 15, 2022
Boston high-rise will be largest Passive House office building in the world
Winthrop Center, a new 691-foot tall, mixed-use tower in Boston was recently honored with the Passive House Trailblazer award.
Architects | Aug 12, 2022
Goettsch Partners names James Zheng, CEO, and Paul de Santis, Co-design Director
Global architecture firm Goettsch Partners (GP) announces that James Zheng, AIA, LEED AP, has been named CEO, and Paul De Santis, Assoc. AIA, LEED AP, joins James Goettsch, FAIA, as co-design directors for the practice. As the primary partners in the firm, the three have worked closely together for more than 17 years. Goettsch will also continue to serve as chairman while Zheng now assumes the full CEO title as well as president.