Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Senior Living Design | Aug 7, 2023
Putting 9 senior living market trends into perspective
Brad Perkins, FAIA, a veteran of more than four decades in the planning and design of senior living communities, looks at where the market is heading in the immediate future.
Higher Education | Aug 7, 2023
Building a better academic workplace
Gensler's David Craig and Melany Park show how agile, efficient workplaces bring university faculty and staff closer together while supporting individual needs.
University Buildings | Aug 7, 2023
Eight-story Vancouver Community College building dedicated to clean energy, electric vehicle education
The Centre for Clean Energy and Automotive Innovation, to be designed by Stantec, will house classrooms, labs, a library and learning center, an Indigenous gathering space, administrative offices, and multiple collaborative learning spaces.
Green | Aug 7, 2023
Rooftop photovoltaic panels credited with propelling solar energy output to record high
Solar provided a record-high 7.3% of U.S. electrical generation in May, “driven in large part by growth in ‘estimated’ small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV whose output increased by 25.6% and accounted for nearly a third (31.9%) of total solar production,” according to a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Resiliency | Aug 7, 2023
Creative ways cities are seeking to beat urban heat gain
As temperatures in many areas hit record highs this summer, cities around the world are turning to creative solutions to cope with the heat. Here are several creative ways cities are seeking to beat urban heat gain.
Government Buildings | Aug 7, 2023
Nearly $1 billion earmarked for energy efficiency upgrades to federal buildings
The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) recently announced plans to use $975 million in Inflation Reduction Act funding for energy efficiency and clean energy upgrades to federal buildings across the country. The investment will impact about 40 million sf, or about 20% of GSA’s federal buildings portfolio.
MFPRO+ New Projects | Aug 4, 2023
Nashville gets 'first-of-its-kind' residential tower
Global architecture firm Goettsch Partners announces the completion of Alcove, a new 356-unit residential tower in Nashville, Tenn., developed by Giarratana LLC.
Industrial Facilities | Aug 3, 2023
The state of battery manufacturing in the era of EV
One of the most significant changes seen in today’s battery plant is the full manufacturing process—from raw materials to the fully operational battery.
Government Buildings | Aug 2, 2023
A historic courthouse in Charlotte is updated and expanded by Robert A.M. Stern Architects
Robert A.M. Stern Architects’ design retains the original building’s look and presence.
Hotel Facilities | Aug 2, 2023
Top 5 markets for hotel construction
According to the United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report by Lodging Econometrics (LE) for Q2 2023, the five markets with the largest hotel construction pipelines are Dallas with a record-high 184 projects/21,501 rooms, Atlanta with 141 projects/17,993 rooms, Phoenix with 119 projects/16,107 rooms, Nashville with 116 projects/15,346 rooms, and Los Angeles with 112 projects/17,797 rooms.