Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Nov 22, 2011
Saskatchewan's $1.24 billion carbon-capture project
The government of Saskatchewan has approved construction of the Boundary Dam Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration Project.
| Nov 22, 2011
New Green Matters Conference examines emerging issues in concrete and sustainability
High-interest topics will be covered in technical seminars, including infrared reflective coatings for heat island mitigation, innovative uses of concrete to provide cooling and stormwater management, environmental benefits of polished concrete, and advancements in functional resilience of architectural concrete.
| Nov 22, 2011
Suffolk Construction selected as contractor for Boston luxury residential tower
Project team breaks ground on 488,000-sf building that will feature world-class amenities.
| Nov 22, 2011
Jones Lang LaSalle completes construction of two new stores in Manhattan
Firm creates new global design standard serving as project manager for Uniglo’s 89,000-sf flagship location and, 64,000-sf store.
| Nov 21, 2011
Mortenson and enXco partnership to build its 19th wind project
The 8,500 acres project will generate140 megawatts of wind power – enough energy to power approximately 39,000 homes.
| Nov 21, 2011
FDH Engineering acquires Energy Solutions
All ESI employees have been merged into FDH’s staff at its St. Louis office.
| Nov 18, 2011
Centre for Interactive Research on Sustainability opens
Designed to exceed LEED Platinum, the Centre for Interactive Research on Sustainability (CIRS) is one of the most innovative and high performance buildings in North America today, demonstrating leading-edge green building design products, technologies, and systems.
| Nov 17, 2011
SmithGroup changes name to SmithGroupJJR
SmithGroup and JJR join brands to become a single, multi-disciplinary company.