Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Dec 5, 2011
Fraser Brown MacKenna wins Green Gown Award
Working closely with staff at Queen Mary University of London, MEP Engineers Mott MacDonald, Cost Consultants Burnley Wilson Fish and main contractor Charter Construction, we developed a three-fold solution for the sustainable retrofit of the building.
| Dec 5, 2011
RJM Construction begins building Nova Classical Academy in St. Paul
As the general contractor, RJM is constructing the 94,000-sf building that will consolidate the St. Paul school’s two other locations.
| Dec 5, 2011
Gables Residential brings mixed-use building to Houston's Tanglewood area
The design integrates a detailed brick and masonry facade, acknowledging the soft pastel color palette of the surrounding Mediterranean heritage of Tanglewood.
| Dec 5, 2011
SchenkelShultz Architecture designs Dr. Phillips Charities Headquarters building in Orlando
The building incorporates sustainable architectural features, environmentally friendly building products, energy-efficient systems, and environmentally-sensitive construction practices.
| Dec 2, 2011
What are you waiting for? BD+C's 2012 40 Under 40 nominations are due Friday, Jan. 20
Nominate a colleague, peer, or even yourself. Applications available here.
| Dec 2, 2011
Legrand joins White House initiative to spur energy efficiency in commercial buildings
Company agrees to aggressive energy savings and reporting.
| Dec 2, 2011
Goody Clancy awarded Ohio State residential project
The project, which is focused on developing a vibrant on-campus community of learning for OSU undergraduates.
| Dec 1, 2011
Nauset Construction breaks ground on Massachusetts health care center
The $20 million project is scheduled to be completed by December 2012.
| Dec 1, 2011
Ground broken on first LEED Platinum designed school house built by volunteers
Phoenix public school receives the generous gift of a state-of-the-art building for student and community use.
| Dec 1, 2011
VLK Architects’ office receives LEED certification
The West 7th development, which houses the firm’s office, was designed to be LEED for Core & Shell, which gave VLK the head start on finishing out the area for LEED Silver Certification CI.