Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Feb 22, 2013
Starbucks pilot program rolls out small, modular stores
Coffee giant Starbucks is rolling out mini-stores with maximum local flavor, as part of an international pilot program.
| Feb 22, 2013
Defense department report: Green design saves taxpayers money
An independent report on energy efficiency and sustainability standards used by the Pentagon for military construction affirms the value of LEED-certified high performing buildings to America’s military and U.S. taxpayers.
| Feb 22, 2013
Detroit project would bring 'fairytale forest' to riverfront
A proposal by atelierWHY to create a heavily wooded park on the downtown riverfront has taken first place in the juried Detroit By Design competition.
| Feb 22, 2013
Zaha Hadid to help plan new London-area airport hub
The Mayor of London has appointed Zaha Hadid Architects to help create a major new airport in southeastern England.
| Feb 21, 2013
AIA College of Fellows awards 2013 Latrobe Prize for 'The City of 7 Billion'
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) College of Fellows has awarded the 2013 Latrobe Prize of $100,000 for the proposal, “The City of 7 Billion.”
| Feb 21, 2013
BD+C's 2011 White Paper: Zero and Net-Zero Energy Buildings + Homes
We submit our eighth White Paper on Sustainability in the hope that it will inspire architects, engineers, contractors, building owners, developers, building product manufacturers, environmentalists, policymakers, government officials, corporate executives, officeholders, and the public to foster the development of net-zero energy buildings and homes.
| Feb 21, 2013
BD+C's 2008 White Paper: Green Buildings + Climate Change
In this White Paper, we provide concrete ways in which AEC professionals can have a positive role in addressing climate change.
| Feb 21, 2013
Holl videos discuss design features of Chengdu ' Porosity Block' project
Architect Steven Holl has released two short films describing the development of Sliced Porosity Block in Chengdu, China.
| Feb 21, 2013
Construction team chosen for world's tallest building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Construction team chosen for world's tallest building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.