Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| May 1, 2013
A LEGO lover's dream: Guide to building the world's iconic structures with LEGO
A new book from LEGO master builder Warren Elsmore offers instructions for creating scale models of buildings and landmarks with LEGO.
| May 1, 2013
New AISC competition aims to shape the future of steel
Do you have the next great idea for a groundbreaking technology, model shop or building that could potentially revolutionize the future of the steel design and construction industry? Enter AISC's first-ever Future of Steel competition.
| May 1, 2013
Data center construction remains healthy, but oversupply a concern
Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are among the major tech companies investing heavily to build state-of-the-art data centers.
| May 1, 2013
Groups urge Congress: Keep energy conservation requirements for government buildings
More than 350 companies urge rejection of special interest efforts to gut key parts of Energy Independence and Security Act
| May 1, 2013
World’s tallest children’s hospital pushes BIM to the extreme
The Building Team for the 23-story Lurie Children’s Hospital in Chicago implements an integrated BIM/VDC workflow to execute a complex vertical program.
| Apr 30, 2013
Healthcare lighting innovation: Overhead fixture uses UV to kill airborne pathogens
Designed specifically for hospitals, nursing homes, child care centers, and other healthcare facilities where infection control is a concern, the Arcalux Health Risk Management System (HRMS) is an energy-efficient lighting fixture that doubles as a germ-killing machine.
| Apr 30, 2013
First look: North America's tallest wooden building
The Wood Innovation Design Center (WIDC), Prince George, British Columbia, will exhibit wood as a sustainable building material widely availablearound the globe, and aims to improve the local lumber economy while standing as a testament to new construction possibilities.
| Apr 26, 2013
Apple scales back Campus 2 plans to reduce price tag
Apple will delay the construction of a secondary research and development building on its "spaceship" campus in an attempt to drive down the cost of developing its new headquarters.
| Apr 26, 2013
Documentary shows 'starchitects' competing for museum project
"The Competition," a new documentary produced by Angel Borrego Cuberto of Madrid, focuses on the efforts of five 'starchitects' to capture the design contract for the new National Museum of Art of Andorra: a small country in the Pyrenees between Spain and France.
| Apr 26, 2013
Solving the parking dilemma in U.S. cities
ArchDaily's Rory Stott yesterday posted an interesting exploration of progressive parking strategies being employed by cities and designers. The lack of curbside and lot parking exacerbates traffic congestion, discourages visitors, and leads to increased vehicles emissions.