Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Feb 10, 2014
Ball State to host Geothermal Conference on design, drilling and equipment - April 10, 2014
To best serve the industry, Ball State University has organized a single day conference in which participants will be able to exchange technical notes, develop understandings and share experiences with design, drilling, and equipment issues related to geothermal ground source heat pump technology.
| Feb 7, 2014
DOE, Autodesk team to overhaul the EnergyPlus simulation program
The update will allow a larger ecosystem of developers to contribute updates to the code in order to improve performance and decrease the time required to run energy model simulations.
| Feb 7, 2014
Meet the new Fellows: AIA elevates 143 to College of Fellows
The AIA College of Fellows is an honor awarded to members who have made significant contributions to the architectural profession.
| Feb 7, 2014
Bernards announces executive leadership realignment
Changes reflect long-term growth plans as builder enters its fifth decade.
| Feb 7, 2014
Zaha Hadid's 'white crystal' petroleum research center taking shape in the desert [slideshow]
Like a crystalline form still in the state of expansion, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center will rise from the desert in dramatic fashion, with a network of bright-white, six-sided cells combining to form an angular, shell-like façade.
| Feb 6, 2014
First look: Gensler ups the ante on airport design with new SFO boarding area
The new terminal features a yoga room, award-winning arts program, and an interactive play area for kids.
| Feb 6, 2014
End of the open workplace?
If you’ve been following news about workplace design in the popular media, you might believe that the open workplace has run its course. While there’s no shortage of bad open-plan workplaces, there are two big flaws with the now common claim that openness is bad.
| Feb 6, 2014
New Hampshire metal building awes visitors
Visitors to the Keene Family YMCA in New Hampshire are often surprised by what they encounter. Liz Coppola calls it the “wow factor.” “Literally, there’s jaw dropping,” says Coppola, director of financial and program development for the Keene Family YMCA.
| Feb 5, 2014
M&A activity down in 2013 among architecture, engineering firms: Report
In 2013, consultant Morrissey Goodale observed 168 sales of U.S.-based architecture and engineering (“A/E”) firms – down nearly 7% from the record 180 sales of U.S.-based A/E firms in 2012.
| Feb 5, 2014
BIA Opens Entries for 25th Annual Brick in Architecture Awards
Entries open on February 10 for the Brick Industry Association's (BIA) Brick in Architecture Awards. Celebrating its silver anniversary, BIA's annual honors spotlight outstanding, innovative and sustainable architecture that incorporates clay brick products as the predominant exterior building or paving material.