Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Mar 12, 2014
AIA gives support to legislation to assist architecture students with debt
The National Design Services Act will give architecture students relief from student loan debt in return for community service.
| Mar 12, 2014
New CannonDesign database allows users to track facility assets
The new software identifies critical failures of components and systems, code and ADA-compliance issues, and systematically justifies prudent expenditures.
| Mar 11, 2014
7 (more) awe-inspiring interior designs [slideshow]
The seven winners of the 41st Interior Design Competition and the 22nd Will Ching Design Competition include projects on four different continents.
| Mar 11, 2014
Freelon Group to join Perkins+Will
The Freelon Group concentrates on museums, libraries, universities and other civic and institutional clients; Perkins+Will plans to incorporate this specialization into their design repertory.
| Mar 10, 2014
Meet Tally – the Revit app that calculates the environmental impact of building materials
Tally provides AEC professionals with insight into how materials-related decisions made during design influence a building’s overall ecological footprint.
Sponsored | | Mar 10, 2014
A high-performance barn
Bastoni Vineyards replaces a wooden barn with an efficient metal building used for maintenance, storage, and hosting events.
| Mar 10, 2014
Field tested: Caterpillar’s Cat B15 rugged smartphone
The B15 is billed by Cat as “the most progressive, durable and rugged device available on the market today.”
| Mar 10, 2014
5 rugged mobile devices geared for construction pros
BD+C readers share their most trusted smartphone and tablet cases. The editors select some of their faves, too.
| Mar 7, 2014
Thom Mayne's high-tech Emerson College LA campus opens in Hollywood [slideshow]
The $85 million, 10-story vertical campus takes the shape of a massive, shimmering aircraft hangar, housing a sculptural, glass-and-aluminum base building.
| Mar 7, 2014
Learning from common leadership errors
As a leader in the AEC world, you’ll likely find yourself making certain mistakes over the course of your career. Here are a few common leadership errors that can easily be avoided.