Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| May 22, 2014
No time for a trip to Dubai? Team BlackSheep's drone flyover gives a bird's eye view [video]
Team BlackSheep—devotees of filmmaking with drones—has posted a fun video that takes viewers high over the city for spectacular vistas of a modern architectural showcase.
| May 22, 2014
NYC's High Line connects string of high-profile condo projects
The High Line, New York City's elevated park created from a conversion of rail lines, is the organizing principle for a series of luxury condo buildings designed by big names in architecture.
| May 22, 2014
Just two years after opening, $60 million high school stadium will close for repairs
The 18,000-seat Eagle Stadium in Allen, Texas, opened in 2012 to much fanfare. But cracks recently began to appear throughout the structure, causing to the school district to close the facility.
| May 22, 2014
Senate kills bipartisan energy efficiency bill over Keystone pipeline amendment
The legislation focused on energy efficiency standards such as water heaters with smart meters and cheaper heating and cooling systems for office buildings.
| May 22, 2014
IKEA to convert original store into company museum
Due to open next year, the museum is expected to attract 200,000 people annually to rural Älmhult, Sweden, home of the first ever IKEA store.
| May 21, 2014
Evidence-based design practices for the palliative care environment
Palliative care strives to make patients comfortable as they are receiving treatment for a severe illness. As hospitals seek to avoid Affordable Care Act penalties for poor patient satisfaction, many expect this field to grow quickly.
| May 21, 2014
Gehry unveils plan for renovation, expansion of Philadelphia Museum of Art [slideshow]
Gehry's final design reorganizes and expands the building, adding more than 169,000 sf of space, much of it below the iconic structure.
| May 21, 2014
Check out Pandora's posh NYC offices [slideshow]
The new East Coast office for the Internet radio provider is housed on two interconnected floors of the classic 125 Park Avenue building, and features multiple spaces for music performances, large gatherings, and “all hands” meetings.
| May 21, 2014
Architecture Billings Index in the negative for second consecutive month
The March ABI score was 49.6, up slightly from a mark of 48.8 in March, but still below the growth threshold of 50.
| May 20, 2014
Kinetic Architecture: New book explores innovations in active façades
The book, co-authored by Arup's Russell Fortmeyer, illustrates the various ways architects, consultants, and engineers approach energy and comfort by manipulating air, water, and light through the layers of passive and active building envelope systems.
