Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:Â
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today. Â
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.Â
Related Stories
| Jun 18, 2014
Architecture Billings Index shows increase in design activity
The American Institute of Architects reported that the May ABI score was 52.6, up sharply from a mark of 49.6 in April. This score reflects an increase in design activity.
| Jun 17, 2014
Must see: If music were architecture in 27 illustrations
From Miles Davis to Björk to Manu Chao to Bach, Babina visualizes how these sounds will look like if they were visible in the form of architecture.
| Jun 17, 2014
Nation's largest Thai Buddhist temple opens near Boston
The $60 million facility built in honor of King Rama IX of Thailand is the largest Thai Buddhist temple outside of Thailand.
| Jun 17, 2014
U.S. Census report examines why Americans move
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 35.9 million people moved between 2012 and 2013, meaning that 11.7% of the U.S. population moved in one year. The report seeks to examine why.
| Jun 17, 2014
World's tallest pair of towers to serve as 'environmental catalyst' for China
The Phoenix Towers are expected to reach 1 km, the same height as Adrian Smith and Gordon Gill's Kingdom Tower, but would set a record for multiple towers in one development.
| Jun 16, 2014
6 U.S. cities at the forefront of innovation districts
A new Brookings Institution study records the emergence of “competitive places that are also cool spaces.”
| Jun 13, 2014
Gilbane Building Company names new president and chief operating officer
Gilbane Building company hires new president and COO
| Jun 13, 2014
First look: BIG's spiraling museum for watchmaker Audemars Piguet
The glass-and-steel pavilion's spiral structure acts as a storytelling device for the company's history.
| Jun 13, 2014
Grocery stores, restaurants make neighborhoods most desirable [infographic]
John Burns Real Estate Consulting ranks the top 25 housing amenities by generation, based on feedback from more than 20,000 home shoppers.
| Jun 12, 2014
Zaha Hadid's 'gravity defying' Issam Fares Institute opens in Beirut
The design builds upon the institute’s mission as a catalyst and connector between AUB, researchers and the global community.