Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:Â
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today. Â
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.Â
Related Stories
| Jul 10, 2014
Berkeley Lab opens 'world's most comprehensive building efficiency simulator'
 DOE’s new FLEXLAB is a first-of-its-kind simulator that lets users test energy-efficient building systems individually or as an integrated system, under real-world conditions.
| Jul 10, 2014
Steinberg SF Studio launches in San Francisco, plans to transform its own office space
Grant and Saheba left their previous architectural firms, AECOM and Handel respectively, because they saw the opportunity to bring their agile, provocative design aesthetic to clients in San Francisco, Silicon Valley, and Oakland.
| Jul 9, 2014
Dragon-inspired hotel conveys Vietnamese hospitality [2014 Building Team Awards]
An international Building Team unites to create Vietnam’s first JW Marriott luxury property.
| Jul 9, 2014
Harvard Business School to build large-scale conference center
Expected to open in 2018, the facility will combine the elements of a large-scale conference center, a performance space, and an intimate community forum. The new building will be designed by Boston-based William Rawn and Associates.
| Jul 9, 2014
Top U.S. cities for design professionals
Though New York and Los Angeles are often seen as the sole hubs for design jobs, other design epicenters are scattered between the coasts.
| Jul 9, 2014
The one misstep that could be slowing your company’s growth
Change. It’s inevitable. And success for any professional may very well depend on how well we adapt to it. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Jul 9, 2014
First Look: SOM's design for All Aboard Florida Fort Lauderdale rail station
The lightweight and luminous design "responds to its setting and creates a striking infrastructural icon for the city," said SOM Design Partner Roger Duffy.Â
| Jul 8, 2014
Fast-track naval hospital sparks sea change in project delivery [2014 Building Team Awards]
Through advanced coordination methods and an experimental contract method, the Building Team for Camp Pendleton’s new hospital campus sets a new standard for project delivery.
| Jul 8, 2014
Does Zaha Hadid’s Tokyo Olympic Stadium have a design flaw?
After being criticized for the cost and size of her stadium design for the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo, a Japanese architect points out a major design flaw in the stadium that may endanger the spectators.
| Jul 8, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright's posthumous gas station opens in Buffalo
Eighty-seven years after Frank Lloyd Wright designed an ornamental gas station for the city of Buffalo, the structure has been built and opened to the public—inside an auto museum.Â