Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Dec 4, 2014
£175 million 'Garden Bridge' gets the green light to cross the Thames
Westminster Council has approved a £175 million 'Garden Bridge' that will allow pedestrian traffic only. There has been some controversy about this bridge, which is expected to attract seven million visitors annually.
Sponsored | | Dec 3, 2014
Modular Space Showcase: Bringing work-life balance to energy workers in the Bakken region
To meet the demands of the booming energy business, Williston needs to provide homes, recreation centers, restaurants, hotels, and other support facilities for the tidal wave of energy workers relocating to the Bakken Shale area. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Dec 3, 2014
U.S., Canada, and Mexico finalize agreement to recognize architect credentials
The agreement represents over a decade of negotiations, bringing cross-border recognition of professional credentials from concept to reality in the spirit of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
| Dec 3, 2014
35 cities added to Rockefeller Foundation's 100 Resilient Cities Challenge
Chicago, Dallas, and Pittsburgh are among the U.S. cities to join the 100 Resilient Cities Challenge, pioneered by The Rockefeller Foundation.
| Dec 2, 2014
First existing multifamily buildings to earn Energy Star certification unveiled
River City in Chicago is one of 17 existing multifamily properties to earn Energy Star certification, which became available to this sector on Sept. 16 via a scoring system for multifamily properties that Energy Star and Fannie Mae had been developing for three years.
| Dec 2, 2014
Nashville planning retail district made from 21 shipping containers
OneC1TY, a healthcare- and technology-focused community under construction on 18.7 acres near Nashville, Tenn., will include a mini retail district made from 21 shipping containers, the first time in this market containers have been repurposed for such use.
| Dec 2, 2014
Main attractions: New list tallies up the Top 10 museums completed this year
The list includes both additions to existing structures and entirely new buildings, from Frank Gehry's Foundation Louis Vuitton in Paris to Shigeru Ban's Aspen (Colo.) Art Museum.
| Dec 2, 2014
Nonresidential construction spending rebounds in October
This month's increase in nonresidential construction spending is far more consistent with the anecdotal information floating around the industry, says ABC's Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
| Dec 2, 2014
Hoffmann Architects announces promotions
The architecture and engineering firm specializing in the rehabilitation of building exteriors announces the promotion of members of its Connecticut staff.
| Dec 2, 2014
SPARK designs urban farming housing for Singapore’s elderly population
The proposal blends affordable retirement housing with urban farming by integrating vertical aquaponic farming and rooftop soil planting into multi-unit housing for seniors.
