Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Transit Facilities | Jul 30, 2015
Snøhetta designs ring-shaped cable car station in Italian Alps
In Snøhetta’s design, two cylindrical rings embedded into the existing topography, each at different elevations, will be connected by a cable car. During the minute-long cable car journey, passengers can enjoy views of the city and of the Italian Alps.
Office Buildings | Jul 29, 2015
Design plans for Fannie Mae’s new HQ revealed
The developer/owner, Carr Properties, envisions a 1-million-sf plus mixed-use center with a large retail pavilion.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 29, 2015
Milwaukee Bucks arena deal approved by Wisconsin state assembly
Created by Milwaukee firm Eppstein Uhen Architects and global firm Populous, the venue will be built in downtown Milwaukee. Its design draws inspiration from both Lake Michigan, which borders Milwaukee, and from aspects of basketball, like high-arcing free throws.
Contractors | Jul 29, 2015
Consensus Construction Forecast: Double-digit growth expected for commercial sector in 2015, 2016
Despite the adverse weather conditions that curtailed design and construction activity in the first quarter of the year, the overall construction market has performed extremely well to date, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast.
University Buildings | Jul 28, 2015
OMA designs terraced sports center for UK's Brighton College
Designs for what will be the biggest construction project in the school’s 170-year history feature a rectangular building at the edge of the school’s playing field. A running track is planned for the building’s roof, while sports facilities will be kept underneath.
High-rise Construction | Jul 28, 2015
Work begins on KPF's 'flared silhouette' tower in Manhattan
The 62-story, 157-unit luxury condo tower widens at the 40th floor, resulting in a gently flared silhouette, accented by a sculpted crown.
Museums | Jul 28, 2015
MUST SEE: Zaha Hadid's latest museum project is built into a mountain
The museum, dedicated to legendary mountaineer Reinhold Messner, is embedded within Mount Kronplatz in northern Italy.
Smart Buildings | Jul 27, 2015
Perkins+Will imagines new opportunity for Atlantic City
The architecture giant believes it has a solution that could put Atlantic City’s existing infrastructure to good use—by turning the Jersey Shore city into a research center for climate change and coastal resiliency.
Retail Centers | Jul 27, 2015
Fish-shaped shopping mall designed for odd plot of land in China
The mall, in Qinshui, a city in China’s Shanxi province, will fit within the 250x30-meter dimensions surrounded by parallel roads and two converging rivers.
Performing Arts Centers | Jul 27, 2015
Vox Populi: Netherlands municipality turns to public vote to select design for new theater
UNStudio’s Theatre on the Parade received nearly three-fifths of votes cast in contest between two finalists.