Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
High-rise Construction | Feb 2, 2016
This tall tower will lower your heart rate
Matthias Olt, Associate Vice President at CallisonRTKL, discusses new ways to improve individual health and well-being through tower design.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 1, 2016
Top 10 kitchen design trends for 2016
Charging stations, built-in coffeemakers, and pet stations—these are among the top kitchen design trends for the coming year, according to a new survey of kitchen and bath designers by the National Kitchen & Bath Association.
Architects | Jan 28, 2016
25-year-old architect wins competition for World War I memorial in Pershing Park
Joe Weishaar and sculptor Sabin Howard were selected from among five finalists and over 350 entries overall.
| Jan 28, 2016
AIA CES class: The rainscreen approach to a better building envelope
Building envelope expert Bradley Carmichael of Hoffmann Architects explains how rainscreen wall systems work and evaluates the effectiveness of various rain-control methods, including mass walls, perfect barriers, and masonry veneers. This AIA/CES class is worth 1.0 learning unit.
Architects | Jan 28, 2016
2015 was a record year for mergers and acquisitions in the AE industry [infographic]
Consulting firm Morrissey Goodale tracked a record 234 sales of U.S.-based A/E firms last year.
Architects | Jan 27, 2016
NCARB to rename the Intern Development Program
This June, the program designed to guide aspiring architects through the early stages of their career will be renamed the Architectural Experience Program (AXP).
Architects | Jan 26, 2016
HOK promotes Bill Hellmuth to chief executive
Hellmuth is set to replace Patrick MacLeamy, who will remain as the firm’s chairman.
Mixed-Use | Jan 25, 2016
SOM unveils renderings of dual-tower Manhattan West development
The five million-sf project includes two office towers, a residential tower, retail space, and a new public square.
Office Buildings | Jan 21, 2016
Nike reveals design, first images of planned 3.2 million-sf expansion to its world headquarters
The expansion looks to combine design elements inspired by human movement, speed, and the strength and energy of competition.
Market Data | Jan 20, 2016
Architecture Billings Index ends year on positive note
While volatility persists, architecture firms reported healthy performance for 2015.