Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
BIM and Information Technology | Jun 7, 2016
6 ways smart AEC firms are using computational design methods
Rapid prototyping, custom plug-ins, and data dashboards are among the common applications for computational design.
Building Team | Jun 2, 2016
Managing risk when building in challenging locations
AEC firms recognize the upsides of exploring new, emerging markets. Whitehorn Financial's Steve Whitehorn offers four principles that can help guide you to success.
Airports | Jun 1, 2016
LaGuardia Airport’s massive redevelopment begins construction
The development consortium has secured financing for the $4 billion project, and signed an operating lease through 2050.
Building Team Awards | Jun 1, 2016
Multifamily tower and office building revitalize Philadelphia cathedral
The Philadelphia Episcopal Cathedral capitalizes on hot property to help fund much needed upgrades and programs.
Building Team Awards | Jun 1, 2016
Central utility power plant takes center stage at UC San Diego Jacobs Medical Center
An undulating roof, floor-to-ceiling glass, and façade scheme give visual appeal to a plant that serves the 10-story medical center.
Architects | May 31, 2016
JLG Architects acquires Minneapolis-based Studio Five Architects
Led by Linda McCracken-Hunt, SFA is one of Minnesota’s oldest woman-owned architecture firms.
Building Team Awards | May 31, 2016
Gonzaga's new student center is a bustling social hub
Retail mall features, comfortable furniture, and floor-to-ceiling glass add vibrancy to the new John J. Hemmingson Center.
Building Team Awards | May 27, 2016
Big police academy trains thousands of New York's finest
The Police Training Academy in Queens, N.Y., consists of a 480,000-sf academic/administration building and a 240,000-sf physical training facility, linked by an aerial pedestrian bridge.
Building Team Awards | May 26, 2016
Cimpress office complex built during historically brutal Massachusetts winter
Lean construction techniques were used to build 275 Wyman Street during a winter that brought more than 100 inches of snow to suburban Boston.
Building Team Awards | May 25, 2016
New health center campus provides affordable care for thousands of Northern Californians
The 38,000-sf, two-level John & Susan Sobrato Campus in Palo Alto is expected to serve 25,000 patients a year by the end of the decade.