Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Aug 12, 2016
OFFICE GIANTS: Technology is giving office workers the chance to play musical chairs
Technology is redefining how offices function and is particularly salient in the growing trend of "hoteling" and "hot seating" or "free addressing."
| Aug 12, 2016
Top 100 Office Architecture Firms
Gensler, HOK, and Perkins+Will top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest office sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 11, 2016
RETAIL GIANTS: Retailers and developers mix it up to stay relevant with shoppers
Retail is becoming closely aligned with entertainment, and malls that can be repositioned as lifestyle centers will have enhanced value.
| Aug 10, 2016
Top 90 Retail Architecture Firms
Gensler, GreenbergFarrow, and MG2 top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest retail sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 10, 2016
DATA CENTER GIANTS: Information overload is pushing the limits of mission-critical facilities
Streamlined design and delivery approaches for individual business enterprises and co-location facilities are being born out of the necessity to bring new capacity online as quickly as possible.
| Aug 10, 2016
Top 30 Data Center Architecture Firms
Gensler, Corgan, and HDR top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest data center sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 10, 2016
UNIVERSITY GIANTS: Facing money woes, the nation's colleges double down on innovative ideas
Budget constraints are compelling some public institutions to pursue alternative methods of financing their major building projects.
| Aug 9, 2016
Top 100 University Architecture Firms
Gensler, Perkins+Will, and CannonDesign top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest university sector architecture and A/E firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Aug 9, 2016
Renascent architecture: Demolished Frank Lloyd Wright structures get new life
The Frank Lloyd Wright Revival Initiative is set to begin its reconstruction efforts with the Banff Pavilion, which was demolished in 1939.
Building Team | Aug 4, 2016
Thought leaders from architecture, engineering and construction to meet at 2016 Bluebeam eXtreme Conference
Bluebeam users inspire technological change through shared insights and training at three-day event.