Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
AEC Tech | Feb 13, 2020
Exclusive research: Download the final report for BD+C's Giants 300 Technology and Innovation Study
This survey of 130 of the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms tracks the state of AEC technology adoption and innovation initiatives at the AEC Giants.
Office Buildings | Feb 11, 2020
Forget Class A: The opportunity is with Class B and C office properties
There’s money to be made in rehabbing Class B and Class C office buildings, according to a new ULI report.
Architects | Feb 6, 2020
NBBJ acquires immersive technology design studio ESI Design
NBBJ has acquired experience design studio ESI Design. The acquisition signals a new era where buildings will be transformed into immersive and interactive digital experiences that engage and delight.
Sponsored | HVAC | Feb 3, 2020
Reliable Building Systems Increase Net Operating Income by Retaining Tenants
Tenants increasingly expect a well-crafted property that feels unique, authentic, and comfortable—with technologically advanced systems and spaces that optimize performance and encourage collaboration and engagement. The following guidance will help owners and property managers keep tenants happy.
Architects | Jan 29, 2020
Frank Lloyd Wright’s architecture school is closing
The school was established in 1932.
Libraries | Jan 23, 2020
Information or community center: The next generation of libraries must be both
Are libraries still relevant in a digital world?
Green | Jan 10, 2020
How the new EC3 tool raises the bar on collective action
Nearly 50 AEC industry organizations partnered to develop the groundbreaking Embodied Carbon in Construction Calculator.
Architects | Jan 9, 2020
AIA selects recipients for the 2020 Regional & Urban Design Awards
The 2020 Regional & Urban Design program recognizes the best in urban design, regional and city planning and community development.
Building Technology | Jan 7, 2020
Tariff whiplash for bifacial solar modules
Bifacial solar systems offer many advantages over traditional systems.
Sponsored | HVAC | Jan 6, 2020
Maximize Energy Efficiency in Class A Office Buildings With Modern Building Systems
Energy-efficient building design starts with the building envelope, but the building systems have a tremendous impact on energy use as well.