Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Architects | Oct 14, 2020
The Weekly Show: AI for building facade inspections; designing a world-class architecture firm
The October 15 episode of BD+C's "The Weekly" is available for viewing on demand.
Coronavirus | Oct 8, 2020
The Weekly show: Statue of Liberty Museum, emotional learning in K-12, LA's climate change vulnerability
The October 8 episode of BD+C's "The Weekly" is available for viewing on demand.
Architects | Oct 8, 2020
Gensler’s annual report chronicles the firm’s ‘transformation’
The firm positions itself as a leading voice for how building design plays a central role in meeting society’s evolving demands.
Smart Buildings | Oct 1, 2020
Smart buildings stand on good data
The coming disruption of owning and operating a building and how to stay ahead through BIM.
Architects | Oct 1, 2020
BIG imagines how we could live on the moon
The architecture firm has partnered with ICON on the project.
Architects | Sep 30, 2020
Sir David Adjaye OBE to receive 2021 Royal Gold Medal for Architecture
His practice, Adjaye Associates, was founded in 2000 and today has studios in Accra, London and New York, with projects across the world.
Coronavirus | Sep 28, 2020
Evaluating and investing resources to navigate past the COVID-19 pandemic
As AEC firm leaders consider worst-case scenarios and explore possible solutions to surmount them, they learn to become nimble, quick, and ready to pivot as circumstances demand.
Coronavirus | Sep 24, 2020
The Weekly show: Building optimization tech, the future of smart cities, and storm shelter design
The September 24 episode of BD+C's "The Weekly" is available for viewing on demand.
Healthcare Facilities | Sep 10, 2020
Easing the oncology journey: The role of urgent care
Oncology patients are better served when they’re connected to the right staff.
Airports | Sep 10, 2020
The Weekly show: Curtis Fentress, FAIA, on airport design, and how P3s are keeping university projects alive
The September 10 episode of BD+C's "The Weekly" is available for viewing on demand.