Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Architects | Apr 2, 2021
Spring Has Sprung at Construction Specialties
Introducing a slew of sensational solids, metallic finishes that cast subtle and shimmering effects, and disposable curtains to complement our exclusive fabric line.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 30, 2021
Bipartisan ‘YIMBY’ bill would provide $1.5B in grants to spur new housing
Resources for local leaders to overcome obstacles such as density-unfriendly or discriminatory zoning.
Office Buildings | Mar 26, 2021
Finding success for downtown office space after COVID-19
Using the right planning tools can spur new uses for Class B and C commercial real estate.
Architects | Mar 25, 2021
The Weekly Show, March 25, 2021: The Just Label for AEC firms, and Perkins Eastman's Well-Platinum design studio
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders about the Just Label from the International Living Future Institute, and the features and amenities at Perkins Eastman's Well Platinum-certified design studio.
Architects | Mar 23, 2021
Design firms KTGY, Simeone Deary Design Group unite to shape future of architectural design through experiential environments
With a bold vision to reshape how people experience spaces, residential design firm joins forces with interior design group, creating fully integrated architecture, branding, interiors and planning practice.
Architects | Mar 15, 2021
A life in architecture – Lessons from my father
A veteran designer looks back on the lessons his father, a contractor, taught him.
Architects | Mar 11, 2021
Calling all building design professionals: BD+C needs your expertise on design innovation in 2021
This new BD+C research project explores the leading drivers, sources of inspiration, and successful outcomes for design innovation projects and initiatives.
Coronavirus | Mar 11, 2021
The Weekly show, March 11, 2021: 5 building products for COVID-related conditions, and AI for MEP design
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders about building products and systems that support COVID-related conditions, and an AI tool that automates the design of MEP systems.
Laboratories | Mar 10, 2021
8 tips for converting office space to life sciences labs
Creating a successful life sciences facility within the shell of a former office building can be much like that old “square peg round hole” paradigm. Two experts offer important advice.