Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Architects | Dec 9, 2021
Hoffmann Architects wins Connecticut American Institute of Architects Justice, Equity, Diversity & Inclusion Award
The AIA Connecticut J.E.D.I. Challenge, launched in November 2020, offers member firms the opportunity to commit to actions in each of the Challenge areas.
Giants 400 | Dec 5, 2021
2021 Justice Facility Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. justice facility/public safety sector
Turner Construction, DLR Group, AECOM, and Stantec top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms for justice facility/public safety buildings work, including correctional facilities, fire stations, jails, police stations, and prisons, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 3, 2021
2021 Hotel Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. hospitality sector
Gensler, Jacobs, Suffolk Construction, and WATG top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest hotel sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Architects | Nov 29, 2021
LRK Names Tony Pellicciotti ‘Managing Principal’ of firm
Pellicciotti is one of LRK’s fourteen principals representing its markets in Memphis, Dallas, Philadelphia, Orlando/Celebration, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Little Rock, and Princeton.
Architects | Nov 23, 2021
HMC names new Director of Design
James Krueger will oversee design and lead strategies to improve the impact of HMC’s work.
Giants 400 | Nov 20, 2021
2021 Parking Structure Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. parking structure sector
PGAL, PCL Construction, and Wiss, Janney, Elstner Associates top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest parking structure sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Nov 20, 2021
Top 100 Design-Build Construction Firms for 2021
Clayco, Hensel Phelps, ARCO Construction Companies, Swinerton, and Ryan Companies US top the rankings of the nation's largest design-build construction firms for buildings construction work, according to BD+C's 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Nov 19, 2021
2021 Cultural Facilities Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. cultural facilities sector
Gensler, AECOM, Buro Happold, and Arup top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest cultural facilities sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Nov 19, 2021
2021 Convention Center Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. convention and conference facilities sector
Populous, KPFF, Lendlease, and Turner Construction top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest convention and conference facilities architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Nov 18, 2021
2021 Multifamily Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. multifamily building sector
Clark Group, Humphreys and Partners, and Kimley-Horn head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest multifamily building sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2021 Giants 400 Report.