Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
K-12 Schools | Apr 30, 2024
Fully electric Oregon elementary school aims for resilience with microgrid design
The River Grove Elementary School in Oregon was designed for net-zero carbon and resiliency to seismic events, storms, and wildfire. The roughly 82,000-sf school in a Portland suburb will feature a microgrid—a small-scale power grid that operates independently from the area’s electric grid.
AEC Tech | Apr 30, 2024
Lack of organizational readiness is biggest hurdle to artificial intelligence adoption
Managers of companies in the industrial sector, including construction, have bought the hype of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative technology, but their organizations are not ready to realize its promise, according to research from IFS, a global cloud enterprise software company. An IFS survey of 1,700 senior decision-makers found that 84% of executives anticipate massive organizational benefits from AI.
Codes and Standards | Apr 30, 2024
Updated document details methods of testing fenestration for exterior walls
The Fenestration and Glazing Industry Alliance (FGIA) updated a document serving a recommended practice for determining test methodology for laboratory and field testing of exterior wall systems. The document pertains to products covered by an AAMA standard such as curtain walls, storefronts, window walls, and sloped glazing. AAMA 501-24, Methods of Test for Exterior Walls was last updated in 2015.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 29, 2024
World’s largest 3D printer could create entire neighborhoods
The University of Maine recently unveiled the world’s largest 3D printer said to be able to create entire neighborhoods. The machine is four times larger than a preceding model that was first tested in 2019. The older model was used to create a 600 sf single-family home made of recyclable wood fiber and bio-resin materials.
K-12 Schools | Apr 29, 2024
Tomorrow's classrooms: Designing schools for the digital age
In a world where technology’s rapid pace has reshaped how we live, work, and communicate, it should be no surprise that it’s also changing the PreK-12 education landscape.
Adaptive Reuse | Apr 29, 2024
6 characteristics of a successful adaptive reuse conversion
In the continuous battle against housing shortages and the surplus of vacant buildings, developers are turning their attention to the viability of adaptive reuse for their properties.
AEC Innovators | Apr 26, 2024
National Institute of Building Sciences announces Building Innovation 2024 schedule
The National Institute of Building Sciences is hosting its annual Building Innovation conference, May 22-24 at the Capital Hilton in Washington, D.C. BI2024 brings together everyone who impacts the built environment: government agencies, contractors, the private sector, architects, scientists, and more.
Mass Timber | Apr 25, 2024
Bjarke Ingels Group designs a mass timber cube structure for the University of Kansas
Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG) and executive architect BNIM have unveiled their design for a new mass timber cube structure called the Makers’ KUbe for the University of Kansas School of Architecture & Design. A six-story, 50,000-sf building for learning and collaboration, the light-filled KUbe will house studio and teaching space, 3D-printing and robotic labs, and a ground-level cafe, all organized around a central core.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Apr 25, 2024
How pools can positively affect communities
Clark Nexsen senior architects Jennifer Heintz and Dorothea Schulz discuss how pools can create jobs, break down barriers, and create opportunities within communities.
Senior Living Design | Apr 24, 2024
Nation's largest Passive House senior living facility completed in Portland, Ore.
Construction of Parkview, a high-rise expansion of a Continuing Care Retirement Community (CCRC) in Portland, Ore., completed recently. The senior living facility is touted as the largest Passive House structure on the West Coast, and the largest Passive House senior living building in the country.