Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jul 14, 2022
Multifamily rents rise again in June, Yardi Matrix reports
Average U.S. multifamily rents rose another $19 in June to edge over $1,700 for the first time ever, according to the latest Yardi® Matrix Multifamily Report.
Building Team | Jul 14, 2022
Austin PBS gets a new state-of-the-art facility with three studios
Since the 1970s, Austin PBS, birthplace of the Austin City Limits TV series, has been based inside the communications building on the University of Texas campus—a space it has long outgrown.
Building Team | Jul 13, 2022
The YIMBY movement emerges as valuable advocate for affordable housing
Over the past few decades, developers grew accustomed to nothing but staunch opposition to dense affordable housing project proposals.
Energy | Jul 13, 2022
Electrification of buildings, new and old, furthers environmental responsibility and equity
It’s almost a cliché in our industry, but nonetheless: The greenest building is the one that is already built.
Building Team | Jul 13, 2022
Austin’s newest entertainment and hospitality complex has been made from repurposed shipping containers
A new entertainment and hospitality complex in Austin, The Pitch, has been made out of repurposed shipping containers.
Codes and Standards | Jul 12, 2022
USGBC sets out principles for LEED’s future
The U.S. Green Building Council recently published a report containing principles outlining how LEED will evolve.
Building Team | Jul 12, 2022
10 resource reduction measures for more efficient and sustainable biopharma facilities
Resource reduction measures are solutions that can lead to lifecycle energy and cost savings for a favorable return on investment while simultaneously improving resiliency and promoting health and wellness in your facility.
Office Buildings | Jul 12, 2022
Miami office tower nears completion, topping off at 55 stories
In Miami, construction of OKO Group and Cain International’s 830 Brickell office tower is nearing completion.
University Buildings | Jul 11, 2022
Student life design impacts campus wellness
As interior designers, we have the opportunity and responsibility to help students achieve deeper levels of engagement in their learning, social involvement, and personal growth on college campuses.
Museums | Jul 11, 2022
Denmark opens a museum that tells the stories of refugees worldwide
Located on the site of Denmark’s largest World War II refugee camp, the new Refugee Museum of Denmark, FLUGT, tells the stories of refugees from the camp as well as refugees worldwide.
