The relatively steep slowdown in the growth in construction spending in recent years might suggest that this year might result in a decline in overall spending. However, quite the contrary, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel is projecting a modest pick-up in the growth rate, and another solid performance in 2019. There appear to be several factors behind this optimism:
1. Rebuilding and repairs from natural disasters: The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration recently reported its 2017 estimate of losses from major natural disasters like hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding. At $306 billion, it easily shattered the previous record of $215 billion (adjusted for inflation) set in 2005 from the impacts of Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Dennis. While the totality of these loss figures won’t be directly translated into rebuilding and repair activity, they will produce significant opportunities for the construction sector. Existing research suggests that the duration of rebuilding activity after natural disasters is significant, with the peak in spending generally occurring two to three years after the event.
2. Tax reform implications for construction: The recently enacted tax reform package dramatically reduced the nominal tax rates for businesses, and some of these savings will likely be reinvested back into the businesses. With capital expenditures able to be expensed rather than depreciated under the tax act, businesses have even more incentive to invest in their businesses. The impact of tax reform on business profitability will vary by industry, with more capital intensive industries (e.g. utilities, real estate, and transportation) and those with higher effective tax rates (e.g. agriculture, financial services) potentially benefiting the most. In contrast, the single-family housing market recovery is likely to be slowed by the tax package. The lower limits for the deductibility of mortgage interest, as well as the cap set on state and local tax deductions (including property taxes) reduce the tax preferences for homeownership, and likely will moderate growth in house prices, particularly for upper-end homes in areas with high state and local tax rates.
3. Possibility of an infrastructure package: A priority of the Trump administration has been an infrastructure investment program. There have been several versions floated, with the current iteration calling for a $200-billion federal investment over the coming decade leveraging and additional $800 billion in state, local, and private investment. The details of such a program, and the likelihood of its being implemented, should unfold over the coming weeks.
4. Strong consumer and business confidence levels: Consumer sentiment—as measured by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index—turned up in the latter part of 2017, with fourth-quarter figures at their highest levels in almost two decades. Likewise, business confidence levels in 2017, as measured by the Conference Board’s CEO business confidence survey, were at their highest point since before the last recession. These indicators suggest broad confidence in economic conditions across both households and businesses, and a willingness to spend and invest.
5. Leading economic indicators for the construction sector: While there are several “special circumstances” that may provide growth opportunities for the construction sector this year, there are other more basic indicators that point to growth. AIA’s ABI has been signaling growth in design activity for most of the past year, which would point to a comparable upturn in construction activity throughout 2018. Even more significant, the AIA’s index for new design projects coming into architecture firms saw an even sharper upturn than the overall ABI in 2017, demonstrating a growing pipeline for design activity. Additionally, both Dodge Data and Analytics and ConstructConnect reported strong gains in nonresidential building starts in 2017, demonstrating considerable building activity currently under way.
Related Stories
MFPRO+ News | Aug 14, 2024
Report outlines how Atlanta can collaborate with private sector to spur more housing construction
A report by an Urban Land Institute’s Advisory Services panel, commissioned by the city’s housing authority, Atlanta Housing (AH), offered ways the city could collaborate with developers to spur more housing construction.
Adaptive Reuse | Aug 14, 2024
KPF unveils design for repositioning of Norman Foster’s 8 Canada Square tower in London
8 Canada Square, a Norman Foster-designed office building that’s currently the global headquarters of HSBC Holdings, will have large sections of its façade removed to create landscaped terraces. The project, designed by KPF, will be the world’s largest transformation of an office tower into a sustainable mixed-use building.
Sustainability | Aug 14, 2024
World’s first TRUE Zero Waste for Construction-certified public project delivered in Calif.
The Contra Costa County Administration Building in Martinez, Calif., is the world’s first public project to achieve the zero-waste-focused TRUE Gold certification for construction. The TRUE Certification for Construction program, administered by Green Business Certification Inc. (GBCI), recognizes projects that achieve exceptional levels of waste reduction, reuse, and recycling.
Modular Building | Aug 13, 2024
Strategies for attainable housing design with modular construction
Urban, market-rate housing that lower-income workers can actually afford is one of our country’s biggest needs. For multifamily designers, this challenge presents several opportunities for creating housing that workers can afford on their salaries.
University Buildings | Aug 12, 2024
Planning for growing computer science programs
Driven by emerging AI developments and digital transformation in the business world, university computer science programs are projected to grow by nearly 15% by 2030.
Energy Efficiency | Aug 9, 2024
Artificial intelligence could help reduce energy consumption by as much as 40% by 2050
Artificial intelligence could help U.S. buildings to significantly reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions, according to a paper by researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Sponsored | Healthcare Facilities | Aug 8, 2024
U.S. healthcare building sector trends and innovations for 2024-2025
As new medicines, treatment regimens, and clinical protocols radically alter the medical world, facilities and building environments in which they take form are similarly evolving rapidly. Innovations and trends related to products, materials, assemblies, and building systems for the U.S. healthcare building sector have opened new avenues for better care delivery. Discussions with leading healthcare architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) firms and owners-operators offer insights into some of the most promising directions. This course is worth 1.0 AIA/HSW learning unit.
Office Buildings | Aug 8, 2024
6 design trends for the legal workplace
Law firms differ from many professional organizations in their need for private offices to meet confidentiality with clients and write and review legal documents in quiet, focused environments
Data Centers | Aug 8, 2024
Global edge data center market to cross $300 billion by 2026, says JLL
Technological megatrends, including IoT and generative AI, will require computing power to be closer to data generation and consumption, fueling growth of edge IT infrastructure, according to a new JLL report.
K-12 Schools | Aug 8, 2024
New K-12 STEM center hosts robotics learning, competitions in Houston suburb
A new K-12 STEM Center in a Houston suburb is the venue for robotics learning and competitions along with education about other STEM subjects. An unused storage building was transformed into a lively space for students to immerse themselves in STEM subjects. Located in Texas City, the ISD Marathon STEM and Robotics Center is the first of its kind in the district.