Despite labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to impact the construction sector, construction spending for nonresidential buildings is projected to increase 4.0% this year and continue at a 3.9% pace of growth through 2019.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates the commercial construction sectors will generate much of the expected gains this year, and by 2019 the industrial and institutional sectors will dominate the projected construction growth.
“Rebuilding after the record-breaking losses from natural disasters last year, the recently enacted tax reform bill, and the prospects of an infrastructure package are expected to provide opportunities for even more robust levels of activity within the industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and other major leading indicators for the industry also point to an upturn in construction activity over the coming year.”
CLICK TO VIEW INTERACTIVE CHART
Even eight and a half years into this current national economic cycle, the US economy remains on solid footings. Given the strong levels of business investment, economic growth is estimated to have been 2.2% to 2.3% range last year, easily topping the 1.5% growth from 2016. Over two million new payroll positions on net were added to the economy last year, the seventh straight year that payroll growth exceeded that level.
The national unemployment rate ended the year at 4.1%, its lowest level since 2000. And while low interest rates have helped to fuel this growth, rising stock prices have ensured that public companies have had access to capital to expand their operations. The Dow Jones industrial average increased almost 25% during the year.
However, in the face of a supportive economy, construction spending on nonresidential buildings disappointed last year. Overall spending on these facilities grew by only about 2.5%, with spending on manufacturing facilities seeing a steep double-digit decline.
The only sector achieving healthy growth was retail and other commercial facilities, an odd result given the numerous reports of failing shopping centers due to strong growth in e-commerce sales. However, much of the spending reported in the retail and other commercial facilities category was for distribution facilities and related logistic operations to support a more efficient e-commerce system.
Still, the slowdown in spending last year was sharper than expected. Annual 2015 increases were almost 16% across the entire nonresidential building category, with the office and lodging categories realizing strong gains, and the institutional categories posting increases of almost 8% overall.
Growth in activity eased in 2016, with overall spending on nonresidential buildings increasing by only 6% even though the office and lodging categories posted gains of nearly 25%. Spending on institutional facilities was disappointing, with increases totaling less than 2% in this category.
Related Stories
University Buildings | Dec 5, 2022
Florida Polytechnic University unveils its Applied Research Center, furthering its mission to provide STEM education
In Lakeland, Fla., located between Orlando and Tampa, Florida Polytechnic University unveiled its new Applied Research Center (ARC). Designed by HOK and built by Skanska, the 90,000-sf academic building houses research and teaching laboratories, student design spaces, conference rooms, and faculty offices—furthering the school’s science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) mission.
Mass Timber | Dec 1, 2022
Cross laminated timber market forecast to more than triple by end of decade
Cross laminated timber (CLT) is gaining acceptance as an eco-friendly building material, a trend that will propel its growth through the end of the 2020s. The CLT market is projected to more than triple from $1.11 billion in 2021 to $3.72 billion by 2030, according to a report from Polaris Market Research.
Giants 400 | Dec 1, 2022
Top 50 Parking Structure Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Choate Parking Consultants, Gensler, Clark Nexsen, and Solomon Cordwell Buenz top the ranking of the nation's largest parking structure architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Education Facilities | Nov 30, 2022
10 ways to achieve therapeutic learning environments
Today’s school should be much more than a place to learn—it should be a nurturing setting that celebrates achievements and responds to the challenges of many different users.
75 Top Building Products | Nov 30, 2022
75 top building products for 2022
Each year, the Building Design+Construction editorial team evaluates the vast universe of new and updated products, materials, and systems for the U.S. building design and construction market. The best-of-the-best products make up our annual 75 Top Products report.
K-12 Schools | Nov 30, 2022
School districts are prioritizing federal funds for air filtration, HVAC upgrades
U.S. school districts are widely planning to use funds from last year’s American Rescue Plan (ARP) to upgrade or improve air filtration and heating/cooling systems, according to a report from the Center for Green Schools at the U.S. Green Building Council. The report, “School Facilities Funding in the Pandemic,” says air filtration and HVAC upgrades are the top facility improvement choice for the 5,004 school districts included in the analysis.
Architects | Nov 29, 2022
Three decades and counting, Tinkelman Architecture has helped reshape New York’s Hudson Valley
The full-service firm has designed more than 100 projects in this region, including several multifamily buildings currently in the works
Retail Centers | Nov 29, 2022
'Social' tenants play a vital role in the health of the retail center market
After a long Covid-induced period when the public avoided large gatherings, owners of malls and retail lifestyle centers are increasingly focused on attracting tenants that provide opportunities for socialization. Pent-up demand for experiences involving gatherings of people is fueling renovations and redesigns of large retail developments.
Giants 400 | Nov 28, 2022
Top 200 Office Sector Architecture and AE Firms for 2022
Gensler, Perkins and Will, Stantec, and HOK top the ranking of the nation's largest office sector architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Legislation | Nov 23, 2022
7 ways the Inflation Reduction Act will impact the building sector
HOK’s Anica Landreneau and Stephanie Miller and Smart Surfaces Coalition’s Greg Kats reveal multiple ways the IRA will benefit the built environment.